當前朝鮮半島的安全困境－以2010年天安艦事件以來為例

The Security Dilemma in the Korean Peninsula-In the Aftermath of the 2010 Cheonan Incident

盧業中(Yeh-Chung Lu)

《遠景基金會季刊》 16卷1期 (2015/01) Pp. 143-184

摘要

安全困境意指由於各國之間對彼此意圖的不確定，使得各國之間的不安全感持續存在，並具體反映於各自的外交政策。本文以近期朝鮮半島之安全困境為例，討論北韓核武問題及南北韓統一問題，並探究緩和此一困境之倡議的可行性。本文認為，安全困境或可透過管理來緩解；然現階段東北亞安全困境的管理仍必須透過強權國家的主導與維繫方可能達成，強權政治仍是我們後續關注東北亞區域情勢的重要參照。

關鍵字

安全困境 ； 朝鮮半島統一 ； 信任政治 ； 戰略再保證 ； 美中關係

並列摘要

The concept of security dilemma is of importance in understanding international relations (IR): It explains why one state's pursuit of security through arms build-ups may trigger others to do the same, because none of them is certain about the other's intentions. When uncertainties accumulate, war seems to be more likely, and even for the state that tries to pursue security in the first place may feel less secure. Current tensions in the Korean Peninsula put parties involved in a security dilemma, wherein, with a lack of mutual trust, their sense of insecurity increases. This paper aims to explore how the security dilemma affects the situation in the Korean Peninsula after the Cheonan Incident in 2010. The security dilemma, as advised in IR literature, cannot be resolved but at most managed and ameliorated. North Korea's nuclearization and South Korea's ambition for unification are a case in point. This is the reason why President Park Geun-hye's call for trust-building between North and South Korea, dubbed Trustpolitik, is worth noting. From an IR theoretical perspective, international institutions and strategic reassurance, more or less, can serve to lessen the security dilemma. However, power politics still trumps the willingness of cooperation among nations.

並列關鍵字

Security Dilemma ； Unification of the Korean Peninsula ； Trsutpolitik ； Strategic Reassurance ； U.S.-China Relations

參考文獻

石源華(2011)。朝鮮半島戰略新平衡與中國的政策選擇。韓國研究論叢。2011(1)，1-13。

石源華、文恩熙(2012)。試論中韓戰略合作夥伴關係中的美國因素。東北亞論壇。2012(5)，15-22。

李明(2013)。歐巴馬政府的朝鮮半島政策（2009-2012 年）。遠景基金會季刊。14(2)，1-52。

李熙玉(2011)。中美關係的變化和朝鮮半島的和平。當代韓國。2011(1)，1-8。

朱鋒(2012)。奧巴馬連任對美亞太安全政策的影響。國際問題研究。2012(6)，22-25。