中國大陸脫貧的政策宣示與執行成果：以三農政策為例

Evaluating China's Anti-poverty Campaign: A Case Study in ＂Three Rural Policies＂

張子麟(Tzu-lin Chang) ； 歐陽新宜(Hsin-yi Ou-yang)

《遠景基金會季刊》 23卷1期 (2022/01) Pp. 95-143

摘要

本研究在評估中國脫貧政策的執行成效。採用政策評估研究法所建構的「模板式質性分析」程序及量化評估指標，本研究發現，習近平2021年2月所宣示的「脫貧攻堅戰全面勝利」，並非全然事實。以學界揭櫫的四項脫貧目標來評估18年來一號文件共182,457字的官方政策，發現其有「重速效、輕制度」的傾向；量化指標評估顯示農民可支配收入雖有成長，但採用了低於世界銀行絕對貧窮的標準，使得脫貧戰果未盡完美；持續攀高的基尼係數與城鄉差距則顯示了中共百年來的建黨初心，仍有改善空間，而「共同富裕」的政策效果則待後續評估。

關鍵字

一號文件 ； 三農問題 ； 貧困線 ； 脫貧攻堅戰 ； 政策評估

並列摘要

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of China's poverty alleviation policy. Using the ＂template qualitative analysis＂ procedure and the quantitative evaluation indicators of the ＂evaluation research＂ method, this study finds that the ＂comprehensive victory in the fight against poverty＂ announced by Xi Jinping in February 2021 is not quite factual. A total of 182,457 characters found in the ＂No. 1 Document＂ over the past 18 years were employed as analytical material. Moreover, these texts were categorized as templates for the ＂4 poverty alleviation goals＂ disclosed by academic circles. Qualitative analysis reveals a tendency for ＂haste toward the trivialities and neglect of the fundamental＂ in China's poverty alleviation policy. On the other hand, the quantitative evaluation shows that although the disposable income of farmers has grown, it is still much lower than the national average. China's lower absolute poverty line standards than those adopted by the World Bank signify that the fight against poverty has fallen short. In conclusion, China's continuously rising Gini coefficient and the urban-rural disparity in past 30 years show that the CCP's founding ideals of liberating the poor, launched a century ago, were ＂never easy to uphold.＂ Whether the current ＂common prosperity＂ policy will rectify that trend remains to be seen.

並列關鍵字

No. 1 Document ； Three Rural Policies ； Poverty Line ； Anti-poverty Campaign ； Policy Evaluation

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