並列摘要
Fault tree analysis is one kind of the probabilistic safety analysis method. After constructing a fault tree, many basic events which can happen theoretically have never occurred so far or have occurred so infrequently that their reasonable data are not available. However, the use of fuzzy probability can describe the failure probability and its uncertainty of each basic event, and then evaluate the probability that the top event occurs through certain mathematical operations. However, Guth [3] has proposed using evidence theory to perform the fault tree analysis by the 3-valued logic. This paper shows that the lower/upper bound intervals obtained form evidence theory can be used to calculate the failure probability interval of the top event directly, i.e. without needing to transform into 3-valued forms. Although some portion of the intervals may seen more confident than others, different kinds of membership functions may be used to describe subjective opinions while mathematical operation can be performed to calculate the fault tree quantitative analysis.
延伸閱讀
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