臺灣財政永續性之研究：政府角色的反思

The Study of Fiscal Sustainability in Taiwan: A Reflection of the Role of Government

蔡馨芳(Hsin-Fang Tsai)

《公共行政學報》 44期 (2013/03) Pp. 41-72

https://doi.org/10.30409/JPA.201303_(44).0002

摘要

全球各國政府2009年為因應金融危機採行積極性財政政策之代價，引發政府債務快速累積及長期財政不健全之危機。以政府角色來觀察，此乃過去服膺凱因斯主義，強調政府在遭遇經濟衰退時，主張採用「赤字預算」來穩定經濟，而積極介入市場的後果。臺灣各級政府過去20年來，長年依賴舉債支應財政赤字，累積未償債務餘額佔GDP之比率不斷上升，特別是2000年後累積速度加快，財政情況加速惡化。本研究之目的旨於檢驗臺灣近年來財政變數是否仍滿足財政永續之條件，做為財政政策是否持續之判準。研究發現臺灣近20年多來政府實質歲出及歲入已無法滿足跨期平衡條件，顯示自從1989年政治、經濟及社會轉型之後，政府運用財政政策所造成之財政赤字規模已太大，無法透過自動調整機制回復均衡。政府必須審慎檢視政策方向變更之必要性，以確保財政之永續發展；同時，支出結構僵化及財政弱化，致使政府陷入既無法勝任凱因斯學派主張的成長領航者角色，亦無法保守地擔任古典學派所謂市場守護者角色的兩難困境。

關鍵字

財政永續性 ； 跨期預算平衡 ； 預算赤字 ； 財政政策 ； 非定態時間序列模型

並列摘要

In response to the financial crisis around the world, governments in different countries have started implementing various economic revival programs since 2009. The cost of the positive fiscal policies was the aftermath of rapid accumulation of government debts and long term fiscal crisis. Moreover, this is the consequences of the adoption to Keynesian which stressed the concept of ”deficit budget.” How to rconsolidate the fiscal stability has become a very important subject to every government. In the past twenty years, Taiwan government has been relied on borrowing to meet fiscal deficits. The accumulated outstanding debt balance proportion of GDP on the increase, especially after 2000, accelerated deteriorating fiscal situation. The purpose of this paper intends to verify if the conditions of intertemporal budget constraint that Barro proposed has been fulfilled in Taiwan. The finding was that the actual expenditure and revenue in Taiwan have been unable to meet the intertemporal equilibrium in the past twenty years. The research finding revealed that the budget deficit was too large to adjust through automatic mechanism during 1989. The evidence also showed that the contemporary reactive fiscal policies should not be continued. The expenditures structurization and fiscal weakening lead to a dilemma, neither qualified for the role of economic growth steerer, nor as a guardian of market.

並列關鍵字

fiscal sustainability ； intertemporal budget constraint ； budget deficit ； fiscal policy ； non-stationary time-series model

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