臺北市車輛檢驗量現況分析與未來預測

依據道路交通安全規則規定領有牌照之汽車需進行車輛定期檢驗，隨車齡不同車輛檢驗次數可分為二階段。自用小客車出廠5~10年者為一年檢驗一次，出廠滿10年後一年需檢驗二次；非自用小客車出廠未滿5年為一年檢驗一次，出廠5年以上者一年需檢驗二次。此一規定使得新領牌照數量對於車輛檢驗數量的顯著影響變化，大致會存在五年的時間差。民國92~94年間，每年新車銷售數量屢創佳績，車輛數量的持續累積，也使得未來年車輛檢驗的次數可能因此增加。本研究根據現行車輛檢驗法規規定，以現有車輛資料以及預測未來年車輛數變化趨勢，分析預測未來五年台北市車輛檢驗數量。此一預測數據可以提供監理單位了解現有驗車容量與人力資源是否足夠因應未來驗車數量變化，並可及早提出因應對策與方案。

關鍵字

車輛檢驗；預測分析；臺北市

並列摘要

According to the traffic safety by-laws, vehicles need to be inspected periodically. Regarding the frequency of inspection, private passenger cars between 5 and 10 years old, and the other vehicles under 5 years old, should be inspected once a year. Private passenger cars over 10 years old, and other vehicles over 5 years old, should be inspected twice a year. Due to these rules, the number of vehicles needing inspection relative to those vehicles issued new license plates within the last 5 years will significantly increase. During 2003~2005, the sales volume of new vehicles reached a high peak. The number of vehicles increases continuously year by year. Therefore, the number of vehicle inspections will increase in the next 5 years. By considering the traffic safety by-laws and the annual statistics of motor vehicles in Taipei city, this study predicts the number of vehicles inspection for the period 2007~2011. With these forecast results, the Motor Vehicle Office of Taipei City Government can gauge the human resources and inspection facilities needed and thereby plan the vehicle inspection strategy for the future.