應用模糊多準則決策建構都會區公共建設專案風險評估模式

Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making Approach for Risk Assessment of Metropolitan Public Construction Project

呂世通(Shih-Tong Lu) ； 林成蔚(Cheng-Wei Lin)

《公共事務評論》 10卷2期 (2009/12) Pp. 73-108

https://doi.org/10.29622/JPAR.200912.0003

摘要

在都會區中的公共工程建設專案，具有高度的動態性及風險性，一項綜合性的風險分析模式可以提供合理的評估與分析基礎，以利工程建設專案承辦機關或承包廠商制定適當的決策，以因應工程建設專案進行時所可能存在的風險。本研究使用模糊層級分析法(fuzzy analytic hierarchy Process, FAHP)評估都會區公共建設專案所面對的各項風險因素所造成的影響程度(degreeof impact)，以及運用模糊多準則決策(fuzzy multiple criteria decisionmaking, FMCDM)架構進行各風險因素發生的可能性(possibility ofoccurrence)之評定，以建構都會區公共工程建設專案主要作業項目(activities)風險程度(degree of risk)的評估模型，並以模擬簡例說明本模型之操作過程及適用性，期望能提供公共建設執行過程中風險管理之效能。

關鍵字

都會區、公共建設專案、風險評估 ； 模糊層級分析法 ； 模糊多準則決策

並列摘要

Construction project in metropolis is more dynamic and risky. A comprehensive risk analysis will provides public entities or project contractor a more rational basis on which to make decision. This study applies the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to assess the degree of impact of risk factors, and fuzzy multiple criteria decision making (FMCDM) approach to deal with the possibility of occurrence of risk factors. Finally, degree of risk on overall project and individual risk factor was secured by the synthesized analysis on degree of impact and possibility of occurrence. With the implementation of FAHP and FMCDM, the proposed risk assessment approach will be more reliable and practical compared to traditional statistical approach. The proposed approach not only can be employed to evaluate the overall project risk but also can be used for detail analysis on individual work item.

並列關鍵字

metropolitan area ； public construction project ； risk assessment ； fuzzy analytic hierarchy process ； fuzzy multiple criteria decision making