大陸社會變遷中民間組織行為模式之研究－以法輪功為例

Research on Behavior Model of Civil Organization in Social Change in Mainland China-An Example of Falun Gong

蔡培元(Pei-Yuan Tsai)

《公共事務評論》 15卷2期 (2015/12) Pp. 79-92

摘要

法輪功為一種宗教類型的民間組織，對其行為模式之研究，本文以文獻檢閱及網路搜集比較其行為模式之變化，再以質化資料分析法依據社會變遷、社會發展矩陣理論比較法輪功組織與美麗島事件、太陽花學運、反課綱學運之相同及差異點。研究顯示，法輪功之行為模式，在行為上，其對抗中國大陸政府的動機依然公開化，其活動顯示極端性、攻擊性，活動時間大都選擇重大活動或紀念日期間，在傳播教義方面，慣用炒作涉華熱點事件，在反華宣傳形式上日益凸顯隱密性，並與國際反華勢力緊密的配合。法輪功組織與美麗島事件、太陽花、反課綱學運之比較，其現代社會、後現代社會之歷程相同，不同者為大陸為威權體制，台灣為民主政體，中央對民間組織之干涉程度不同，導至公民參與之行為模式稍有不同。

關鍵字

風險 ； 機率 ； 不確定 ； 決策分析 ； 判斷分析

並列摘要

Falun Gong is a kind of civil organization of religion. To do research of its behavior model, it compares the changes in behavior model by reading literature and network collecting in this article and also with the qualitative data analysis to compare the similarity and difference of Falun Gong organization with Kaohsiung Incident and Sunflower Student Movement and anti-adjustment of the syllabus Student Movement by theory of social change and social development matrix. The research shows that, about the behavior model of Falun Gong, in behavior, the motive for resisting Mainland China government is still open, the activity is radical and offensive, and the activity time is almost selected for period of major activities or anniversaries, in dissemination of doctrines, it used to hype hot events related to China, has become increasingly prominent privacy in the propagandistic form of anti-China, and cooperates closely with international anti-China forces. The compare of Falun Gong organization with Kaohsiung Incident and Sunflower Student Movement and anti-adjustment of the syllabus Student Movement is same in course of modern society and post-modern society. The difference is that Mainland is authoritarian system and Taiwan is democracy, and its behavior model is slightly different to Taiwan due to different degree of participative behavior of civil organization that is interfered by the central.

並列關鍵字

risk ； probability ； uncertainty ； decision analysis ； judgement analysis