由心理學經驗法則觀點探討盈餘預測之偏誤類型：併論盈餘水準之影響

The Type of Earnings Forecast Error and the Effect of Earnings Level: Psychological Heuristic Viewpoint

顏信輝(Sin-Hui Yen) ； 丁緯(Wei Ting)

《當代會計》 5卷2期 (2004/11) Pp. 139-173

https://doi.org/10.6675/JCA.2004.5.2.01

摘要

過去探討分析師盈餘預測偏誤類型之研究，有過度樂觀、過度反應及反應不足三種不同發現，難以相互調和。因此，本研究由心理學之經驗法則觀點出發，探討我國分析師與公司管理當局之盈餘預測，究竟屬於何種偏誤類型。此外，最近之研究亦指出，盈餘預測偏誤與盈餘水準間存有密切關聯，故本研究也分析盈餘水準高低與盈餘預測偏誤程度之關係，並了解控制盈餘水準後，盈餘預測偏誤類型之結論是否造成改變。本研究根據民國87至91年台灣上市、櫃公司進行迴歸分析，結果支持過度樂觀偏誤類型之解釋。在盈餘水準方面，發現盈餘水準與過度樂觀偏誤程度存有顯著之負相關，而加入此變數後迴歸模式之解釋力也顯著提昇，唯對原所發現之過度樂觀偏誤類型結論仍然成立。

關鍵字

盈餘預測偏誤 ； 經驗法則 ； 過度樂觀 ； 盈餘水準

並列摘要

Many studies explored analysts' forecast error type; however, the results were mixed. All of the over optimism, over-reaction, and under-reaction types were supported. Based on psychology's heuristic viewpoint, this study explores analysts' and management' earnings forecast error type. In addition, the relationship between the earnings level and forecast error is investigated. Our results, according to the forecasted data from year 1998 to 2002 in Taiwan security market, support the overly optimistic forecast error type and the significantly negative relationship between earnings level and overly optimistic forecast error. After controlling the earnings level, the explanation ability of regression model was significantly increased and the finding of optimistic forecast error still existed.

並列關鍵字

Earnings forecast error ； Heuristic ； Overly optimistic ； Earnings level

參考文獻

Abarbanell, J. S.(1991).Do analysts` forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price changes.Journal of Accounting and Economics.14(2),147-165.

Abarbanell, J. S.,V. L. Bernard(1992).Tests of analysts` overreaction/underreaction to earnings information as an explanation for anomalous stock price behavior.The Journal of Finance.47(3),1181-1208.

Abarbanell, J. S.,R. Lehavy(2003).Biased forecasts or biased earnings? The role of earnings management in explaining apparent optimism and inefficiency in analysts` earnings forecasts.Journal of Accounting & Economics.36(1~3),105-145.

Ali, A.,A. Klein,J. Rosenfeld(1992).Analysts` use of information about permanent and transitory earnings components in forecasting annual EPS.The Accounting Review.67(1),183-198.

Amir, E.,Y. Ganzach(1998).Overreaction and underreaction in analysts` forecasts.Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.37(3),333-347.