管理當局盈餘預測態度與自願性盈餘預測資訊內涵的關係

The Relationship between Management Forecast Attitude of Earnings Forecast and the Informativeness of Voluntary Earnings Forecast

林淑莉(Su-Li Lin)

《當代會計》 5卷2期 (2004/11) Pp. 175-205

https://doi.org/10.6675/JCA.2004.5.2.02

摘要

本研究旨在探討上市（櫃）公司管理當局的預測態度，是否會影響自願性盈餘預測資訊內涵的反應。在台灣確保管理當局自願性盈餘預測可靠性的機制稍嫌不足之情況下，本文分別以管理當局前五年及前三年預測偏誤之平均及加權平均值，作為區分管理當局預測態度為保守或樂觀之替代變數，並觀察市場是否會根據管理當局過去盈餘預測的態度，對盈餘預測宣告之資訊內涵作修正。實證結果發現，當管理當局所發布的盈餘預測資訊傳達好消息時，預測態度保守的公司，市場對其股價的正向反應，會比樂觀公司來的大。反之，若盈餘預測傳達壞消息時，市場對其股價的負向反應，會比樂觀公司來的小。由此可見，市場的確存在著一個理性的機制，會先評估管理當局過去是屬於保守或樂觀的預測態度，再決定對自願性盈餘預測的反應程度。

關鍵字

自願性盈餘預測 ； 資訊內涵 ； 樂觀預測 ； 保守預測

並列摘要

This study explored the relationship between the informativeness of voluntary earning forecast and managements' forecast attitude. I use the biases of management forecast, calculated both by the simple average and weighted average for five or three years prior to the test period, as a proxy variable for managers' forecast attitude (conservative or optimistic), and examine whether change in stock prices induced by earnings forecast are associated with managers' forecast attitude. The empirical results indicate that when the voluntary earnings forecasts convey good news, the abnormal returns of the earnings forecast make by conservative managers is significantly greater than that made by the optimistic managers. On the other hand, when the voluntary earnings forecasts convey bad news, the abnormal returns of earnings forecasts made by conservative managers is significantly less than that made by optimistic managers. These findings suggest that the there is a mechanism in the market able to modify the reaction to informativeness of earning forecast from the managers' forecast attitude of prior periods.

並列關鍵字

Voluntary earnings forecast ； Information content ； Optimistic earnings forecast ； Conservative earnings forecast

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