台灣企業財務危機之預警－保留意見之警訊

The Study of the Ability of Qualified Opinion to be an Early Warning Signal for Corporate Failure

邱垂昌(Chei-Chang Chiou)

《當代會計》 7卷2期 (2006/11) Pp. 195-236

https://doi.org/10.6675/JCA.2006.7.2.03

摘要

本研究之目的在檢視範圍受限、一致性、經營疑慮及不確定性等四種型態之保留意見是否可以作為財務危機發生之警訊，以及這些型態之保留意見對於財務危機機率估計模式是否具有增額解釋力。研究對象為1998年金融風暴期間發生財務危機之上市及上櫃公司，使用logit迴歸檢視保留意見對財務危機發生之預測能力。結果發現台灣會計師所出具之保留意見僅有經營疑慮型態對財務危機發生具有預警作用（但此結果各僅根據極少樣本數），其他三種型態之保留意見對財務危機發生不具預警作用。因此，平均而言並無充分證據支持保留意見（經營疑慮型態除外）對財務危機有預警作用。而保留意見對財務危機機率模式雖有增額解釋力，但皆僅來自經營疑慮型態之保留意見，此與Hopwood et al. (1989)研究美國樣本之結果不太一致。另外，實證結果指出如流動資產總資產比、流動比率、流動資產銷貨比及長期負債比等財務比率對財務危機具有預警作用，顯示公司是否可能發生財務危機，仍可由各年度財務比率之趨勢變化中看出一些端倪。

關鍵字

財務危機 ； 保留意見 ； Logit迴歸模型

並列摘要

The purposes of this study were to examine the ability of four types of qualified opinions (including except-for, consistency, going-concern, and uncertainty) to predict firm's financial distress and the incremental explanatory power of qualified opinions in the financial distress estimation model. The sample was selected from firms listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange or the OTC in 1998. Logit regression models were adopted to examine the ability of qualified opinion to predict firm's financial distress. The results showed that only the going-concern qualification has warning ability in explaining financial distress while the other three types of qualifications have not. Therefore, there is no sufficient evidence to support qualified opinions' early warning effect except for going-concern type. The findings also indicated that only going-concern qualified opinions had incremental explanatory power in corporate failure, which is inconsistent with those of Hopwood et al. (1989). Finally, the results showed that the ratio of current assets and total assets, the ratio of current assets and current liabilities, the ratio of current assets and net sales, and the ratio of long-term liabilities and total assets had the ability to be an early warning signal for corporate failure.

並列關鍵字

financial distress ； qualified opinion ； logit regression model

參考文獻

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