引力原理應用在台海兩岸貿易之政經分析

A Political-economic Analysis with an Application of Gravity Model to Taiwan Cross-strait Trade

盧文吉(W. J. Lu) ； 詹秀蓉(H. J. Chan)

《真理財經學報》 22期 (2010/06) Pp. 1-26

https://doi.org/10.29963/TOJEB.201006.0001

摘要

Tinbergen與Hendricus（1962）首先將引力模型應用在國際貿易分析距今已近五十年之久。本文藉以國際貿易的引力模型實證台灣對外貿易以及台海兩岸經貿發展關係，並探討台灣對中國經貿是否有不對稱性的依賴現象。本文利用台灣與台灣主要貿易往來二十一個國家或地區於1988─2010期間資料形成Panel Data，並將引力模型代入Panel Data Pooled OLS求得台灣出口與進出口貿易之實證結果，顯示台灣對外貿易都合乎引力原理之假說：台灣與主要貿易國間之貿易量與台灣GDP、主要貿易國GDP都成正相關；與距離成反相關；對中國出口較其他國家顯著。本文觀察到台灣對中國經貿已有不對稱性的依賴現象。

關鍵字

引力模型 ； 兩岸貿易 ； 磁吸效應 ； 不對稱性的依賴

並列摘要

It has 50 years for Tinbergen and Hendricus (1962) the first one to study international trade flows with an application of gravity model. Our paper is an attempt to use the gravity equation model in international trade to verify the trade relationship between Taiwan and the essential Taiwan's trade partners. In addition, we want to investigate if Taiwan's foreign trade has an asymmetric dependence on China. The paper uses 1988-2010 data of Taiwan and the essential 21 Taiwan's trade partners to form Panel Data and to apply the gravity equation model with the Panel Data Pooled OLS. We find out the empirical results as followings. First, there are the positive and significant relationships between the export (export-import) and the GDP of Taiwan and the Taiwan's trade partners. Secondly, there are the negative and significant relationships between the export (export-import) and the distance. Thirdly, it is more significant that Taiwan's export to China than other countries. Finally, we find out Taiwan's foreign trade has an asymmetric dependence on China.

並列關鍵字

Gravity Model ； Cross-strait Trade ； Magnetic Effect ； Asymmetric Dependence

參考文獻

邵宗海(1998)。從政治度看兩岸經貿關係。理論與政策。10(1)，24-40。

黃登興、黃幼宜(2006)。兩岸三地貿易流量的變遷：引力模型的驗證。臺灣經濟預測與研究。36(2)，47-75。

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