國小教師之供給量與需求量推估：民國92-102學年度

Projections of Supply and Demand of Elementary School Teacher in Taiwan: 2003-2013

徐聖堯(Sheng-Yau Shiu) ； 楊靜利(Ching-Li Yang)

《教育與社會研究》 7期 (2004/07) Pp. 99-118

摘要

本文推估民國92至102學年度國小教師人數的供需落差。在供給量上，我們以現有師資培育人數為基礎，設定求職教師退出競逐市場的步調，以推估每年的教師供給量；在需求量上，首先依三個假設條件： (1) 固定教師人數（104,300人）、(2) 固定師生比為18.4、以及 (3) 師生比下降至美國2000年的水準15.8後固定不變，設算對應的教師需求量，然後利用目前之教師年資分佈情形，設定退休申請率與核可率，估算每年的職位空缺。研究結果顯示，未來教師供需之間的落差相當大，「合格但無法擔任教職人數比例」最低為67﹪，最高可超過100﹪。換句話說，在某些時期，不僅沒有職位空缺，還產生已在職教師人數過剩的情形。

關鍵字

國小教師 ； 供給量 ； 需求量 ； 師生比

並列摘要

This paper projects the mismatch between supply side and demand side of elementary school teachers in Taiwan to the year 2013, based on the population structure in 2002. In terms of the quantity of supply, we take the current quantity of teacher-to-be as basis, and assume the job-seekers’ steps of going away job market, and then estimate the yearly teaching job opportunity. On the demand side, we assume three hypothetical conditions, (1) the constant quantity of teachers. (104,300 persons), (2) the ratio of teachers and students is asserted as 18.4 and (3) teacher/student’s ratio descends to 15.8 of the US’s level in 2000. We thereby estimate the correspond demand of quantity of teacher, employs the current distribution of teacher’s seniority and presume the varied percentage of retirement application and its approval, and thereby estimate the yearly teaching vacancy. The research result shows that the gap between supply and demand is enormous throughout the entire period of projection. Under such circumstance, optimistically speaking, there’s only 33 percent of the qualified candidates will be employed to be an elementary school teacher. In some periods, the amount of incumbent teachers is even more than needed.

並列關鍵字

elementary school teacher ； supply ； demand ； ratio of student to teacher

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