兩岸經貿互動對我國總體經濟與產業發展之影響分析

兩岸間經貿往來越來越密切，在兩岸先後加入WTO後，兩岸間勢必將面對一個新的互動關係，也將對兩岸產業間的互動產生直接及間接的衝擊。如何掌握其對我國總體經濟與產業發展所可能帶來的衝擊，並擬具有效的因應措施，是目前產官學界都相當重視的議題。有鑑於此，本研究的目的透過可計算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium, CGE)模型分析，根據最新的產業關聯表、兩岸三通的現況與未來可能的發展，配合模型所可能處理的設定，設計一些模擬情境，量化評估兩岸三通之後對兩岸經濟發展產業互動的可能影響，並提出未來兩岸經貿政策制訂時的思考方向。

關鍵字

兩岸三通；政策影響評估；可計算一般均衡CGE模型

並列摘要

Cross-straits trade relations have rapidly increased and become closer. After Taiwan and Mainland China have entered the WTO simultaneously, both countries will inevitably face a new interaction relationship. This will have direct and indirect impacts on the industries in both countries. The industry, government and academia place much emphasis on the issue of the impacts that Mainland China has on industry develop of Taiwan and formulate effective response measures. As such, this study uses the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model to analyze the latest input-output tables, cross-straits ”three links” status and possible future developments, and design some simulation scenarios according to the setting that the CGE can process to assess the possible impacts on cross-straits economic development and industry interaction.