負盈餘之資訊內涵－以銷貨為基礎之盈餘評價模型觀點

The Information Content of Negative Earnings: The Role of Sales-Based Earnings Valuation Model

王蘭芬(Lan-Fen Wang) ； 李淑華(Shu-hua Lee) ； 許齡丰(Ling-Feng Hsu)

《台灣管理學刊》 12卷1期 (2012/02) Pp. 69-98

https://doi.org/10.6295/TAMJ.2012.1201.04

摘要

本研究第一部分彙整我國1991年至2008年上市櫃公司報導負盈餘之概況。根據彙整分析結果顯示，我國報導損失之公司有逐年增加之趨勢、規模較小之公司更容易報導損失，且逐年增加之趨勢更明顯。彙整資料亦顯示報導損失公司仍可能持續存在於市場；企業發生損失於次年度迴轉為獲利之機率最高；而連續報導損失之期間越久，迴轉獲利之機率越低。本研究第二部分之實證結果為：（1）投資人評估獲利公司與損失公司時，每股盈餘與權益帳面價值資訊均為攸關資訊，但盈餘之資訊內涵不同。（2）評價損失公司時，以銷貨為基礎之盈餘與股價呈顯著正相關，顯示以銷貨為基礎之盈餘要素對損失公司具有資訊內涵；且其評價模型之解釋能力高於基本盈餘評價模型，表示損失公司較適合採用以銷貨為基礎之盈餘評價模型。（3）投資人使用以銷貨為基礎之盈餘（權益帳面價值）評價損失公司時，投資人會考量公司之未來存活（破產）機率。

關鍵字

損失公司 ； 負盈餘 ； 盈餘資訊內涵 ； 銷貨收入 ； 評價

並列摘要

This study discusses two issues on loss firms in Taiwan. First, we compile the trend, frequency and duration of loss firms for Taiwan’s listed firms for the years between 1991 and 2008. We find that firms with reported losses become more frequent in recent years. The longer the firm's loss history is, the lower probability the firm will earn profit in the following year. We also find that losses can persist for a long time for some of the listed firms in Taiwan. Second, we examine the earnings information content in loss firms in Taiwan from 1981 through 2008. In the first part, we use ”basic-earnings valuation model” to study the difference of the information content of earnings between loss firms and profit firms. In the second part, in order to understand the information content in sale-based earnings, we use ”sales-based earnings valuation model,” which is developed by Jenkins (2003), to evaluate loss firms. We then compare which model is suitable for valuation of loss firms, the ”basic-earnings valuation model” or the ”sales-based earnings valuation model.” In the final part of the study, we add survival (bankruptcy) probability to test the market's ability to assess the loss firms' survival (bankruptcy). The empirical findings are: market uses reported earnings to assess profit firms, and it uses equity book value to evaluate loss firms. This result implies that profit firms and loss firms have different information content in earnings, and the sales-based earnings factor contains information content for loss firms. Also, sales-based earnings valuation model is more suitable for loss firms than for profit firms. This means that income statement information still has information content for loss firms. Finally, when using sales-based earnings (equity's book value) to determine stock prices, investors would simultaneously consider loss firms' survival probability (probability of bankruptcy).

並列關鍵字

loss firms ； negative earnings ； information content ； sales ； valuation

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