能源前瞻計畫策略性目的之探討

The Study with the Motivation of Energy Technology Foresight Project

黃偉倫(Wei-Lung Huang)

《政策研究學報》 12期 (2012/07) Pp. 67-91

https://doi.org/10.7070/PR.201207.0067

摘要

本文旨在探討能源前瞻計畫對政府目標（增加社會福祉或增加選民支持）的影響，進而了解政府實施能源前瞻計畫的策略性目的。除了能源前瞻計畫之議題諮詢目的外，能源前瞻計畫還能提供能源使用單位訊息－新／再生能源網路系統的預告，本文利用數學模型證明當能源網路系統具邊際成本遞減性及間接網路外部性時，能源前瞻計畫對能源使用單位幾無影響，則政府執行能源前瞻計畫不會增加社會福祉。再則，能源前瞻計畫提供其他政治團體訊息－政府將推動新／再生能源政策，本文利用數學模型證明能源前瞻計畫可阻止其他政治團體進入此議題，使得政府執行能源前瞻計畫可能會增加選民支持，進而證明能源前瞻計畫之策略性目的可能是政府的自利行為。

關鍵字

能源前瞻計畫 ； 邊際成本遞減性 ； 間接網路外部性 ； 政治市場競爭策略

並列摘要

The purpose of this study explored the influence of the Energy Technology Foresight Project (ETFP) on the firms and outs. ETFP provides firms the information: the foresights of New/Renewable Energy, but this model proved when energy system with diminishing of marginal cost and indirect externalities of network ETFP has little influence on firms. In the other side, ETFP provides outs the information: government would push the policy of New/Renewable Energy, this model proved ETFP could deter outs into the political market of energy issues, so ETFP has been government's competition strategy of political market. Thus, the motivation of energy technology foresight project might be the self-interest behavior of government.

並列關鍵字

Energy Technology Foresight Project ； Diminishing of Marginal Cost ； Indirect Externalities of Network ； Competition Strategy of Political Market

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