老農福利津貼制度永續性之初探

自2008年10月1日實施國民年金保險制度之後，臺灣的老年所得保障制度，以社會保險制度為主流的保障形式，只有農民的老年所得保障不在其中，其係以福利津貼的形式，提供免繳費制的給付，此制度已實施20年，過去的16年為普及式發給，近4年才修改為資產調查式，本研究的主要目的在探討此福利津貼型態的永續性，並以時間序列方法預測未來的財務負擔，資料來源為勞動部勞工保險局2007年1月至2015年4月每月老農福利津貼支出金額之統計資料，共計100筆觀察值，預測未來8年財務負擔趨勢，並進一步分析其存續的困難問題及永續性發展的建議方向。

關鍵字

老農福利津貼；時間序列方法；普及式；資產調查式

並列摘要

Since the Taiwan government implemented the National Pension System on October 1, 2008, its old-age pension has established a social insurance system as its main support type. However, farmers' old-age pensions were not included in this program, but rather were allocated as a non-contributory benefit. This 20-year scheme was disbursed universally for 16 years; however, for the last four years, the welfare allowance has been modified into a means-tested program. This study examined the type and sustainability of this non-contributory welfare benefit, using the time series analysis method to forecast future financial expenditures. The monthly spending data on the old-age farmers welfare allowance program from January 2007 to April 2015 were collected from the Bureau of Labor Insurance of the Ministry of Labor; it comprised a total of 100 observations. An 8-year trend of financial expenditure was estimated. In addition, the program's sustainable problems were analyzed, and possible system reforms recommended.

並列關鍵字

old-age farmer welfare allowance ； time series analysis ； universal program ； means-test program

參考文獻

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