豬肉香腸製程污染口蹄疫病毒風險評估

Quantitative Risk Assessment of FMDV in Pork Sausage Processing

周晉澄(Chin-Cheng Chou)

《臺灣獸醫學雜誌》 30卷4期 (2004/12) Pp. 294-300

https://doi.org/10.7009/TVJ.200412.0294

摘要

本研究評估製造生產豬肉香腸過程遭受口蹄疫病毒污染之殘留風險。台灣為使用疫苗口蹄疫非疫區，相關偶蹄動物產品仍帶有口蹄疫病毒之可能，因此進行豬肉香腸量化風險評估。研究依據口蹄疫O Taiwan97病毒特性與台式香腸之原料取得至生產流程，包含熟成、醃漬、乾燥與濕熱步驟，建構四組風險分析情境路徑，並收集風險因子資料與由實驗取得之風險因子數值，推估最終可能風險。風險路徑以Monte Carlo抽樣方法重複測定的10,000次，結果顯示，香腸可能帶有病毒的平均機率為3.11 × 10^(-7)由敏感性分析得知，感染肉的加工處理及疾病盛行率與最終風險值相關性較高，可為後續疾病重要風險管制點。

關鍵字

口蹄疫 ； 量化風險分析 ； 樹狀圖 ； 模擬測試

並列摘要

A risk assessment model was constructed for the evaluation of foot-and-mouth disease virus survival in pork sausage processing. This began with hazard identification, and proposed a risk scenario including pathways in farm, slaughterhouse and meat processing plant. Probability values for the risk events of the variables were collected from literature and data of virus survival experiments included chilling, curing, drying and heating processes. Alter executing ten thousand iterations of Monte Carlo simulation, an average risk of 3.11 x 10^(-7) would be expected to have FMDV in one 50 g pork sausage. Infected meat with Iymph nodes and blood clots in sausage processing and also the disease prevalence were both the most important control point for risk management in this model.

並列關鍵字

Foot and mouth disease ； quantitative risk assessment ； scenario simulation