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颱風湧浪預報經驗法的探討

A Study on Typhoon Swell Forecasting Scheme

摘要


颱風波浪脫離暴風區域後稱爲湧浪,常比颱風先到達岸邊,無預警的造成沿海的生命和財產的損失。梁(1989)提出颱風湧浪預報模式,然而近來有許多新資料,有必要重新檢討修正。梁的颱風湧浪預報法以Bretschneider & Tamage (1976)颱風波浪推算法計算出的颱風中心附近波浪資料爲基礎,求出半經驗法。本研究除了Bretschneider法外,採用另外兩個颱風波浪推算法,及四種決定颱風最大風速半徑方式,配合花蓮港波浪測站資料,以及中央氣象局颱風資料,求出另一颱風湧浪經驗公式。將梁的颱風湧浪預報法略作修改,以未用過的颱風資料作驗証,與新公式比較,仍以修改的梁的颱風湧浪預報法較佳。

關鍵字

湧浪 颱風 都卜勒效應

並列摘要


As typhoon waves propagate out of the storm, it is called the swell. Since the group velocity of swell is swifter than the typhoon itself so that it often reseaches shore earlier. Without warning the swell may cause serious property damages and even loss of human lives. Liang (1989) had proposed the typhoon swell forecast method. However, there are so many new typhoon and wave data. Therefore, it is necessary to revise the model. The wave in the vicinity of a typhoon estimated by the Bretschneider & Tamage's method (1976) is the basic data for Liang's typhoon swell forecast method. In this study two other typhoon wave methods and 4 algorisms for the radius of maximum winds are employed. The wave data at Hualien Harbor and typhoon data provided by the Central Weather Bureau, Rep. of China are analyzed to obtain a new empirical equation for typhoon swell. A modified Liang's method is compared to the new method, by applying to typhoons, which is not used in the analysis. The modified Liang's method is still better.

並列關鍵字

swell typhoon doppler effect

被引用紀錄


張高瑋(2015)。考慮海陸風及湧浪特性的波高與風速之迴歸分析〔碩士論文,國立交通大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6842/NCTU.2015.00609
吳岳潤(2014)。類神經網路的位置因子輸入對颱風波浪推算模式的精度提升探討〔碩士論文,國立交通大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6842/NCTU.2014.00511

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