海嘯預警與溢淹潛勢圖數值模擬之回顧與探討

On the Numerical Study of Tsunami Early Warning and Inundation Map

陳冠宇(Guan-Yu Chen)

《海洋工程學刊》 13卷1期 (2013/03) Pp. 69-91

https://doi.org/10.6266/jcoe.2013.1301.05

摘要

預警系統以及海嘯溢淹潛勢圖的製作是海嘯防災的重點。本文首先回顧著名的歷史地震海嘯並說明台灣進行海嘯之預警與溢淹潛勢圖研究之必要性，再就海嘯預警與海嘯溢淹潛勢圖之數值模擬方式加以探討。為進行詳細分析與比較，本文將海嘯預警分為事先算好的海嘯預報系統資料庫以及海嘯的實時模擬兩種方式；海嘯模擬資料庫的構成又細分為海嘯情境的數值模擬、格林函數法與互逆格林函數法三種。其中以互逆格林函數法最為經濟適用，故又進一步以智利海嘯與東日本大海嘯進行驗證，探討互逆格林函數法在近年台灣海域海嘯的適用性。之後，本文探討溢淹模擬使用之地形資料及海嘯條件，並將海嘯溢淹模擬分為海嘯情境的溢淹數值模擬、以不同波高的特定波形進行之海嘯溢淹模擬、以及實時的海嘯溢淹模擬。依照圖資呈現之方式，海嘯溢淹潛勢圖則分為實體圖以及和地理資訊系統相結合的電子圖；後者除了使用商業用或專用的地理資訊系統外，也可以 Google Earth作為海嘯溢淹潛勢圖的展示平臺。最後，本文建議海嘯預警加入適當的震源模式可增進結果的正確性。

關鍵字

海嘯預警 ； 海嘯溢淹潛勢圖 ； 互逆格林函數 ； Google Earth

並列摘要

Both tsunami early warning and tsunami inundation map are essential for tsunami hazard mitigation. In this review, we first describe historic tsunami events and explain why studying tsunami early warning and inundation map is important in Taiwan. Then tsunami early warning is classified into two categories, precalculated database and real-time simulation. The former is further divided into three approaches: scenario analysis, Green’s function and its reciprocal function. The reciprocal Green’s function is most feasible and its application in both the 2010 Chilean tsunami and the 2011 Great Eastern Japan Tsunami shows order-of-magnitude accuracy. The topography and the initial/boundary conditions used in the generation of inundation map are then discussed. The simulation of inundation is classified into three categories: scenario analysis, fixed incident waveform of various wave height, and real-time simulation. The resulting hazard map can be either printed out on paper or shown on a geographic information system (GIS) in its digital version. The latter is more flexible and can be applied on either commercial GIS software or on Google Earth. Finally, asperity model is suggested to improve the accuracy of tsunami early warning.

並列關鍵字

tsunami early warning ； tsunami inundation map ； reciprocal green's function ； Google Earth