空間優化與動態模式應用於海洋保護區之規劃

Spatial Optimization and Dynamic Modeling for Marine Protected Area Design

鄭弘志(Hung-Chih Cheng) ； 夏沛亞(Pierre-Alexandre Château) ； 張揚祺(Yang-Chi Chang)

《海洋工程學刊》 17卷3期 (2017/09) Pp. 157-174

摘要

近年來，系統方法已被公認為有效規劃海洋保護區的工具之一，但是，設立海洋保護區卻仍存在著許多動態且複雜的不確定因素。雖然目前國際間已存在著許多使用系統方法與空間優化模式規劃海洋保護區之空間配置研究，但是其中大部分的研究僅可提供使用者「現階段」最佳方式的規劃方式，決策者無法知道未來此海洋保護區實質上的效益，利益相關者也無法得知自身利益在未來是否會受到影響。故本研究以調適性管理為基礎，整合空間動態生態模式與空間優化模式，並且將長期的模擬年限劃分成不同的模擬階段。本研究的結果顯示，決策者可在不同的模擬階段中，依據不同的決策偏好，作為下一階段海洋保護區規劃目標之依據。最後，找出符合共同利益與永續發展的海洋保護區規劃方式，不但可以提升利益相關者於保護區規劃之參與度，更可提供決策者與利益相關者一個彼此溝通的平台，提升未來海洋保護區在設立上的支持率以及成功率。

關鍵字

系統方法 ； 海洋保護區 ； 調適性管理 ； 空間優化模式 ； 空間動態生態模式

並列摘要

In recent years, systematic approaches have been recognized as one of the effective methods for marine protective area (MPA) designs. There exists many dynamic and complex factors, which are full of uncertainty, when establishing MPAs. Although several systematic methods and spatial optimization models have been developed for the spatial allocations of MPA, most of the studies provide only the current and static optimal planning results. Decision makers cannot know the long-term effectiveness of MPA, and stakeholders cannot know how their future welfare would be affected. In this study, we adopted the concept of adaptive management and developed an integrative framework combining a spatial-dynamic ecosystem model and a spatial optimization model. The spatial optimization and dynamic model can handle a long-term MPA planning by simulating several consecutive shorter periods, such that decision preferences or objectives for the next planning stage can be realized by referring the results of the current stage simulation. Step by step, a sustainable MPA planning which meets mutual benefits of decision makers and stakeholders can be identified eventually. Such modeling approach can serve as an effective communication platform between decision makers and stakeholders due to higher public participation in a planning process. In consequence, the support for future MPA establishment by the local communities can be enhanced to achieve the goal of MPA.

並列關鍵字

Systematic approach ； Marine Protected Area ； Adaptive Management ； Spatial Optimization Model ； Spatial-dynamic Ecosystem Model