北韓核問題與「六方會談」：回顧、分析與展望

North Korea's Nuclear Issue and Six-Party Talks: Retrospection, Analysis, and Prospection

廖文義(Wen-Yi Liao)

《通識研究集刊》 14期 (2008/12) Pp. 31-56

https://doi.org/10.6488/JCGE.200812.0031

摘要

朝鮮半島的任何局勢發展總是牽動著區域安全穩定與否。冷戰結束之後，北韓的核能設施以及相關的武器發展成為影響朝鮮半島局勢發展的主要因素。1993年朝鮮半島爆發第一次核危機，主要是北韓宣佈退出《禁止核武擴散條約》，威脅發展核武器。美國雖曾考慮對北韓核設施進行強硬打擊，最終還是與北韓展開談判，並於1994年達成雙邊《框架協定》。第二次危機一直隱藏於第一次危機之後，於2002年10月美國助理國務卿凱利宣稱北韓官員承認繼續進行核武研發計畫，以及2003年1月北韓再一次宣佈退出《禁止核武擴散條約》而正式浮出檯面。在各國的努力之下，2003年8月成立「六方會談」試圖解決北韓核危機。至2007年為止，「六方會談」已舉行過六輪會議，期間有共識也有分歧。「六方會談」作為解決北韓核危機的目的，至少具備了國際調停行為以及多邊主義制度兩種性質。雖然我們對「六方會談」朝向多邊組織發展所有期待，但是未來北韓核問題與「六方會談」卻存在五種可能的發展模式。

關鍵字

北韓核問題 ； 六方會談 ； 多邊主義 ； 國際調停

並列摘要

Any development of instable situation in Korean Peninsula always impacts on East Asia regional security. After the Cold War, the nuclear facilities and weapons of North Korea become the critical factors to escalate tensions and instability in East Asia. In 1993, the first nuclear crisis of North Korea occurred. North Korea announced its intention to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and finally an Agreed Framework was signed between the US and North Korea in Geneva on 21 October 1994. The second crisis occurred from 2002 to 2003. In October 2002, the US stated publicly that North Korea had admitted to a nuclear weapons program to US Assistant Secretary of State, James Kelly, and in January 2003, North Korea again threatened to withdraw from NPT. In light of the seriousness of the nuclear program, six nations (the United States, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, and North Korea) engaged extensive diplomatic efforts to reconcile the nuclear crisis, and in August 2003, ultimately China hosted the first round of six-party talks in Beijing. Up to the present, the six-party talks have totally hosted six rounds. The results are mixed. Some agreements are reached while others remain divergent. In short, the six-party talks in nuclear crisis have at least two qualities of international mediation and multilateralism. We look forward to the six-part talks being formed a kind of security regime in Northeast Asia, but in fact it will have five possible models in the future.

並列關鍵字

North Korea's Nuclear Issue ； Six-party Talks ； Multilateralism ； International Mediation