高屏地區水文測站洪水流量之頻率分析

Flood Frequency Analysis of Streams in the Kao Ping Area

沈少文(Shaw-Wen Sheen)

《華岡農科學報》 26期 (2011/01) Pp. 25-51

https://doi.org/10.29985/HKJA.201101.0002

摘要

高屏地區位於臺灣西南地帶，沿海低窪地區時常發生嚴重洪水災害，因此探討當地洪水災害有助於高屏地區永續經營與管理，本研究分析高屏溪三地門測站、荖濃測站、東港溪潮州測站與林邊溪新埤測站歷年最大瞬時洪水流量以建立最大瞬時洪水流量─重現期限迴歸模式，本研究使用最大瞬時洪水流量─重現期限迴歸模式計算推測1年-100年重現期限之洪水流量與其95%預測區間，研究發現1964年至2009年高屏溪三地門測站歷年最大瞬時洪水流量平均值是1696秒立方公尺，其變異係數是0.6355，1958年至2009年高屏溪荖濃測站歷年最大瞬時洪水流量平均值是2171秒立方公尺，其變異係數是0.6192，1965年至2009年東港溪潮州測站歷年最大瞬時洪水流量平均值是749秒立方公尺，其變異係數是0.5137，1961年至2009年林邊溪新埤測站歷年最大瞬時洪水流量平均值是1538秒立方公尺，其變異係數是0.6823。研究發現高屏溪三地門測站重現期限100年估計最大瞬時洪水流量是6084秒立方公尺，其為歷年帄均最大瞬時洪水流量3.59倍，高屏溪荖濃測站重現期限100年估計最大瞬時洪水流量是7547秒立方公尺，其為歷年平均最大瞬時洪水流量3.48倍，東港溪潮州測站重現期限100年估計最大瞬時洪水流量是2273秒立方公尺，其為歷年平均最大瞬時洪水流量3.03倍，林邊溪新埤測站重現期限100年估計最大瞬時洪水流量是5807秒立方公尺，其為歷年平均最大瞬時洪水流量3.78倍。本研究分析計算高屏地區歷年最大瞬時洪水流量，研究結果可供相關水利單位參考，期望有助於高屏地區集水區環境永續經營與管理。

關鍵字

洪水流量 ； 重現期限 ； 高屏地區

並列摘要

The Kao Pin area is located in the southwestern area of Taiwan. Floods often occur in coastal areas. Therefore, to examine flood disasters of this area is helpful to the sustainable development and management of the Kao Pin area. The aim of this study is to analyze flood frequency in the watersheds of the Kao Pin area. This study analyzes maximum annual flood series data of the Kao Pin Creek, Tung Kang Creek and Lin Pien Creek. This study uses the regression equations to estimate flood quantities with return periods 1 to 100 years and 95% prediction intervals. Results show that at San Ti Men station of the Kao Pin Creek the mean maximum annual flood is 1696 cms. At Lao Numg station of the Kao Pin Creek the mean maximum annual flood is 2171 cms. At Chao Chou station of the Tung Kang Creek the mean maximum annual flood is 749 cms. At Hsin Pei station of the Lin Pien Creek the mean maximum annual flood is 1538 cms. Results also show that at San Ti Men station of the Kao Pin Creek the 100-year flood is 6084 cms, 3.59 times of the mean maximum annual flood. At Lao Numg station of the Kao Pin Creek the 100-year flood is 7547 cms, 3.48 times of the mean maximum annual flood. At Chao Chou station of the Tung Kang Creek the 100-year flood is 2273 cms, 3.03 times of the mean maximum annual flood. At Hsin Pei station of the Lin Pien Creek the 100-year flood is 5807 cms, 3.78 times of the mean maximum annual flood.

並列關鍵字

Flood Discharge ； Return Period ； Kao Pin Area