美國未來霸權地位演變趨勢之分析：週期理論觀點

Analysis of the Trend That U. S.'s Dominant Status Develops: View of Cyclical Theories

翁明賢(Ming-Hsien Wong) ； 李黎明(Li-Ming Lee)

《全球政治評論》 16期 (2006/10) Pp. 27-48

摘要

學者曾經指出，國際間霸權競爭的結果，導致世界歷史中的重大轉折，此種週期性的衝突，重組國際體系的權力結構並導向一個新而未知的歷史發展方向。
有部份研究文獻，對全球戰爭導致世界政治與經濟的歷史演變過程，進行了重要的論述。他們認為，長週期變化的情形可以經由概念與理論的說明以了解。此即所謂，「國際政治長週期理論」。
本文的目的，在於了解週期理論對當前國際問題有無助益，並希望藉此獲得若干有用的解析意涵。經由初步的觀察與分析，本文的結論是，在2025年至2030年之間，爆發戰爭或重大變革的可能性很大。更寬廣的分析結果，在2017至2034年之間都有這種可能性。美國在未來的霸權地位，很可能因為此種週期性的變化，經由國際戰略情勢的轉變而改變。

關鍵字

週期理論 ； 國際政治 ； 霸權 ； 長週期

並列摘要

Some scholar pointed out that great turning points in world history have been provided by these hegemonic struggles among political rivals. These periodic conflicts had reconstructed the international system and propelled history to new and uncertain directions.
Some researches focus on large-scale organized warfare that lead to the historical evolution of world economic and political phenomena and discourse important viewpoints. They believe that long-term changes can be understood through conceptual and theoretical clarification. These viewpoints are called ”cyclical theories of international politics”.
The purpose of this paper is to find out that whether the cycle theory benefits the present international problems or not. It is also expected to obtain some useful interpretive meanings by this research. Via preliminary observation and analysis, it is concluded that between 2025 and 2030, there is a great possibility of having a war or huge change. A broadly analytic conclusion, the possibility will exist in between 2017 and 2034. American's hegemony status may be altered by the transiting of international strategy situation due to the cyclical changes.

並列關鍵字

Cyclical theories ； international politics ； hegemony ； long cycle