西撒哈拉的獨立建國和外交承認：三層賽局的分析

The Independence Movement and Diplomatic Recognition of Western Sahara: A Three-Level Games Analysis

王靜雯(Catherine Wang) ； 嚴震生(Chen-Shen Yen)

《全球政治評論》 28期 (2009/10) Pp. 95-166

https://doi.org/10.29899/JRM.200910.0004

摘要

在殖民主義已經被成為不合時宜的制度之際，西撒哈拉雖然擁有非自治領土的身份，但卻仍未完成去殖民化的過程。國際法及無數的聯合國決議對撒哈威人有利，但他們法理上的自決，在與數十年來被摩洛哥佔領的實際狀況並列時，就顯得不成氣候。
浦特南的多層賽局顯示衝突的解決不僅是發生在談判桌上，國內和國際因素對整個談判的結果具有同樣明顯的影響。在第二層賽局中的相齟，可以歸諸於第一層賽局的因素；國內的壓力讓雙方都很難作出讓步，使得談判的過程顯得空洞。在大部份的研究專注於第一及第二層賽局時，本論文乃是針對第三層次進行研究，即長期僵局可以用更寬廣的地理環境乃解釋。
本論文特別要解釋變遷中的美國、歐盟、法國和西班牙對西撒問題的衝擊，和馬格里布地區的戰略利益與區域本身變化如何影醒對西撒衝突的發展。

關鍵字

多層賽局 ； 國際談判 ； 西撒哈拉衝突 ； 馬格里布地區

並列摘要

In an ear where colonialism has become but an anachronism and despite its status as a Non-Self-governing Territory, Western Sahara has yet to be decolonized. International law and countless UN resolutions favor the Sahrawis, yet their de jure right to self-determination seems immaterial juxtaposed against decades of de facto Moroccan occupation.
Robert Putnam's model of multi-level games shows us that conflict resolution is not something that just happens at the negotiation table and that domestic and external factors exert equally salient effects on overall outcomes. Deadlock in the second game can be attributed to first game factors; internal pressures mean neither side can make real concessions and that the negotiation process itself becomes hollow. Whilst most research focuses on the first and second games, this study looks to the third game, the wider geographical environment for explanation of the longstanding impasse.
Specifically, it attempts to explain the effect of changing American, European Union, French, and Spanish policy, and strategic interests in the Maghreb and changes within the region itself may effect developments in Western Sahara conflict.

並列關鍵字

multi-level games ； international negotiation ； Western Sahara Conflict ； the Maghreb