現實政治民族主義：中共解決港臺問題比較與兩岸關係前瞻

Realpolitik Nationalism: A Comparative Study of the CCP's Solutions to Hongkong and Taiwan Issues, and the Prospects for Cross-Strait Relations

陳怡(Yi Chen)

《全球政治評論》 65期 (2019/01) Pp. 103-131

摘要

伴隨經濟軍事實力增強，中國的民族主義情緒已被視為當今國際秩序的潛在威脅。民族主義裹挾下的中國會否極具破壞性？或是如其所自我標榜的「和平崛起」？本文將從中國民族主義極為重要的來源－港臺問題切入，比較1949年中共建政後同香港、臺灣的關係演變及相應戰略政策的調整，從而歸納、提煉出中國（官方）民族主義之本質－現實政治民族主義，該民族主義的最大特點是「流變不居」，其具體表現形態由中共的「戰略評估」與「訴求能力」兩大因素決定：①當戰略評估是「維持現狀」時，不論訴求能力之高低，均表現為「實用型民族主義」；②當戰略評估是「做出改變」且訴求能力為「低」時，是「攻勢型民族主義」；③當戰略評估是「做出改變」且訴求能力為「高」時，是「果敢型民族主義」。循此邏輯，我們便不難理解：為何在涉及「主權爭端」時，面對同樣重要的「失地」，中共在1950至1970年代的對港方針是「長期打算，充分利用」卻急於武力「解放臺灣」，而到了1970年代末至今，則轉變為堅持「和平統一，一國兩制」與「不排除使用武力」；以及，為何目前習近平會採取諸如「一帶一路」這樣的商業手段（而非武力戰爭）來伸張中國的領土影響力。最後，本文基於上述「現實政治民族主義」邏輯探討了兩岸關係的未來走向與中國崛起的可能影響。

關鍵字

中國民族主義 ； 現實政治 ； 兩岸關係 ； 香港問題 ； 中國崛起 ； 中國威脅論

並列摘要

With the strengthening of economic and military power, Chinese nationalism has been regarded as a potential threat to the current international order. Will China under the nationalism be extremely destructive? Or is it a self-proclaimed ＂peaceful rise＂? This paper will analyze the extremely important sources of Chinese nationalism, the Hongkong and Taiwan issues, comparing the evolution of relations between Mainland-Hongkong and Mainland-Taiwan after 1949. By looking into CCP's corresponding strategies and policies, this paper summarizes the essence of Chinese (official) nationalism - realpolitik nationalism, whose biggest feature is floating and specific manifestation is determined by the CCP's ＂strategic assessment＂ and ＂claim strength＂: (1) When strategic assessment is maintenance, regardless of how much the claim strength is, Chinese nationalism takes the form of pragmatic nationalism; (2) when strategic assessment is change and claim strength is low, it is aggressive nationalism; (3) when strategic assessment is change while claim strength is high, it is assertive nationalism. Following the above logic, it is not difficult for us to understand why: in the cases of sovereign disputes, when faced with the same important two lost lands, the CCP's policy toward Hongkong in 1950s to 1970s was ＂long-term planning, fully utilize＂ but was eager for ＂liberate Taiwan by force＂, while by the end of the 1970s to present, it has changed to adhere to ＂peaceful reunification under one country, two systems＂ and ＂don't rule out the use of force＂; and why Xi Jinping adopted commercial means, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, rather than military warfare to extend the territorial influence of China. Finally, based on the logic of realpolitik nationalism, this paper explores the future directions of cross-strait relations and the possible impacts of China's rise.

並列關鍵字

Chinese nationalism ； Realpolitik ； Cross-Strait relations ； Hongkong issue ； China's rise ； China threat theory