哈薩克多方外交中的國際體系結構因素

Kazakhstan's Multi-Vector Foreign Policy: International Systemic and Structural Factors

林子立(Tz-Li Lin)

《全球政治評論》 66期 (2019/04) Pp. 57-78

摘要

哈薩克的領土遼闊而人口稀少，僅有549萬5千人，與鄰國接壤的領界非常長，形成了易攻難守的戰略困境。地理上夾在中國與俄國兩大強鄰之間，戰略要衝的位置造成維護國家主權獨立極不容易。哈薩克是冷戰結束後最後一個擺脫蘇聯的附庸國身分，1991年12月16日才獲得獨立地位，執政當局必須維持戰略平衡與經濟轉型發展，博奕在各方強權之間，其戰略思考值得研究。無論是俄羅斯的歐亞經濟聯盟還是中國的一帶一路，對哈薩克而言既是豐富的資源也是嚴峻的挑戰。努爾蘇丹（Nursultan，哈薩克首都新名，原為Astana）利用冷戰結束初期美俄關係和緩的蜜月期，迅速引進美國的勢力進入哈薩克，同時又與日本建立戰略合作夥伴關係，進行能源技術開發，經常能夠在東西兩陣營之間左右逢源。因此，不受意識形態限制的多方外交，是哈薩克的最佳戰略選擇，幫助哈薩克從天然資源出口經濟轉型為多元創新的經濟模式。本研究從核心問題出發，釐清哈薩克的多方外交仍然深受國際體系因素影響，在國際秩序穩定的階段，努爾蘇丹可以左右逢源，但是當國際秩序受到挑戰時，努爾蘇丹的多方外交將被迫扈從對其最有影響力的俄羅斯。本文將利用新古典現實主義作為研究理論架構，兼顧國內外政治與經濟的因素，分析哈薩克在中、俄、美各強權之間的平衡，最終還是有其限制。

關鍵字

哈薩克多方外交 ； 新古典現實主義 ； 國際體系 ； 結構因素

並列摘要

Kazakh's territory is vast and sparsely populated, with only 5.49 million people. The border with neighboring countries is very long, forming a strategic dilemma that is easy to attack but hard to defend. Geographically sandwiched between China and Russia's, it is extremely difficult for maintaining a sovereign dependent country. Kazakh was the last vassal state to get rid of the Soviet Union after the end of the Cold War and won independence on December 16, 1991. It is also difficult that ruling party keep maintaining its strategic balance and economic transformation and development. Thus, it has great value to study Kazakhstan's strategic thinking. Whether it is Russia's Eurasian Economic Union or China's Belt and Road Initiative, it is both a rich resource and a serious challenge for Kazakhstan. Kazakh took advantage of the end of the Cold War, which is the honeymoon period in US-Russia relations. This leads the American interest groups into Kazakhstan. At the same time, it has established a strategic partnership with Japan to develop energy technologies. It allows Nursultan to be able to achieve success one way or another. Multi-Vector Foreign Policy is not subject to ideology but best strategic choice, helping Kazakh to transform from a natural resource export economy to a multi-innovative economic model. Starting from the core issues, this paper clarifies that Kazakhstan's Multi-Vector Foreign Policy is deeply influenced by international system and structural factors. In the stable stage of the international order, Nursultan can get the benefit from both sides. However, when the international order is shifted, Nursultan will be forced to bandwagon Russia. This paper will use neoclassical realism as the theoretical framework of research, taking into account the political and economic factors at home and abroad, and analyzing the balance between Kazakh's powers in China, Russia and the United States, and ultimately has its limitations.

並列關鍵字

Kazakhstan's Multi-Vector Foreign Policy ； Neoclassical Realism ； International System ； Structural Factors