2020年南海地緣政治情勢、主要國家訴求與其對我國國家安全可能之影響研析

The Analysis of Geopolitical Situation of the South China Sea in 2020, the Main Countries' Demands and Its Possible Impact on Taiwan's National Security

葉長城(Chang-Chen Yeh)

《全球政治評論》 72期 (2020/10) Pp. 63-87

摘要

近年來，隨著中國於南海地區軍事化與維權行動更加積極，以及美中在川普政府（Trump Administration）上任後的戰略競爭與對立態勢鮮明，也使南海地區的主權聲索行動與域內外國家以實際軍事演習合作行動，貫徹於此區域之自由航行權利而衍生的對峙情勢與衝突風險持續增溫。對我國而言，由於我國係南海主權聲索國之一，且中國近年來亦因臺美關係顯著提升，而持續加強在臺海、南海的軍事威嚇行動，因此對於2020年南海區域情勢的升高，對我國國家安全之可能衝擊，有必要事先加以評估研析並預做適當因應及準備。就國家安全角度而言，南海情勢變化主要可能衝擊我國之國家安全面向係以軍事、政治外交與經濟安全為主。爰此，我國在軍事上，除應維持派赴海軍陸戰隊機動進駐我東沙群島，因應中共軍事威脅。另應視情勢檢討與調整我國於太帄島防禦工事與軍事準備。同時，於臺海及南海周邊加強監控周邊海、空域變化，確保我於當地海域主權及執行護漁行動。在政治外交上，除須謹慎應對，避免捲入中國與美國及其同盟在南海地區升高的對峙關係外，亦應加強與各國交流及對話，並以參與區域內國際反恐、救災等合作為重點。而在經濟安全上，則應朝加強對外能源運輸航線穩定與安全、預擬替代航運路線與加強市場及供應鏈分散等政策方向調整，俾利在南海區域安全風險升高時，降低其對我國在經濟安全上可能帶來的衝擊。

關鍵字

南海 ； 地緣政治 ； 國家安全

並列摘要

In recent years, as China's militarization and sovereign protection operations in the South China Sea have become more active, and the strategic competition and confrontation between the United States and China during the Trump Administration has become clear, the sovereignty claims in the South China Sea among the major claimants have also become more active in the region. The situation of confrontation and the risk of conflict arising from the implementation of the right to free navigation in this region through cooperation in military exercises by major countries continue to increase. As far as Taiwan is concerned, since Taiwan is one of the claimants for sovereignty in the South China Sea, and because of the significant enhancement of Taiwan-US relations in recent years, China has continued to strengthen its military intimidation operations in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate and analyze the possible impact of confrontational situation in the South China Sea during 2020 on Taiwan's national security in order to make appropriate responses and preparations in advance. From the perspective of national security, the confrontational situations in the South China Sea are likely to have the impact on Taiwan's military, political and diplomatic, and economic security. Therefore, for the military security, Taiwan should send the Marine Corps to station in the Pratas Island for responding Communist Party of China's military threat, and review and adjust Taiwan's fortifications on Itu Aba Island based on the latest situation. At the same time, Taiwan should strengthen the monitoring of change in the surrounding sea and airspace around Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea in order to ensure Taiwan's sovereignty over the waters and implement the protection operations of fishing. For the political and diplomatic security, in addition to be cautious and avoid to get involved in the confrontational situations between China and US and its allies in the South China Sea, Taiwan should enhance exchange and dialogues with other countries and take the participation in international anti-terrorism and disaster relief in the region as key cooperation areas. For the economic security, Taiwan should adjust its policies towards strengthening the stability and safety of external energy transportation routes, planning alternative shipping routes, strengthening the decentralization of its export markets and supply chains, so that it can reduce possible impact of the confrontational situation in the South China Sea on Taiwan's economic security.

並列關鍵字

South China Sea ； geopolitics ； national security