社會脈絡、個人網絡與臺灣2004年立法委員選舉選民的投票抉擇

Social Context, Individual Network on Vote Choice: A Study of the 2004 Legislative Elections in Taiwan

張佑宗(Yu-Tzung Chang) ； 趙珮如(Pei-Ru Chau)

《臺灣民主季刊》 3卷2期 (2006/06) Pp. 1-38

https://doi.org/10.6448/TDQ.200606.0001

摘要

本文研究結果發現，在控制選民政黨認同的條件下，認同泛藍陣營的選民，如個人與家庭其他人的政治立場不一樣，比起那些家庭內成員的政治立場一樣，或是家庭內成員的政治立場都不一樣的人，最後把票投給泛藍陣營的比率最低(69.6%)。在家庭成員的壓力下，他們也沒把票投給泛綠陣營，而是有部份的人選擇不去投票(26.1%)。認同泛綠陣營的選民，如個人與家庭其他人的政治立場不一致，比起那些家庭內成員的政治立場一致，或是家庭內成員的政治立場都不一致的人，最後把票投給泛綠陣營的比率也是最低(47.1%)。在家庭成員的壓力下，他們也沒把票投給泛藍陣營，而是有高達47.1%的人選擇不去投票。透過Logistic迴歸模型的分析，政黨認同仍是影響選民投票抉擇最重要的因素，不管是泛藍或泛綠的認同者，居住在其支持陣營較弱勢的地區，最後投給其所認同陣營的比率高於同樣認同其陣營，但居住在其陣營得票率較高的村里。在控制地理區域下，政黨認同仍是影響選民投票抉擇最重要的因素，居住在北部的選民，教育程度越高，越支持泛藍陣營；年紀越低，越支持泛綠陣營。

關鍵字

社會脈絡 ； 個人網絡 ； 2004年立委選舉 ； 投票抉擇

並列摘要

Using a sociological research approach, we find that, controlling for party identification, those identifying with the pan-blue camp whose political position differed from those of all their family members voted for the pan-blue camp less (69.6%) than either those whose position was the same as all of their family members or those whose position agreed with those of some family members but not with others. Under pressure from their families, many of these voters did not necessarily vote for the pan-green camp, but instead decided not to vote (26.1%). Likewise, those identifying with the pan-green camp whose political position differed from those of all their family members also voted for the pan-green camp less (47.1%) than either those whose position was the same as all of their family members or those whose position agreed with those of some family members but not others. A high percentage of these voters (47.1%) also decided not to vote, under pressure from their families. Using logistic regression find that party-identification was the most important factor influencing voter choice, and independence/unification position was the second most important. Interestingly, regardless of whether identifying with the pan-blue or pan green camp, voters living in districts in which support for their camp is weak tend to vote for their own camp more often than those living in districts in which support for their camp is strong.

並列關鍵字

social context ； individual network ； vote choice ； the 2004 legislative elections in Taiwan

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