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換了位置就換了腦袋嗎？—探索台灣總統大選的選舉輸家
Does a Change of Position Mean a Change of Mind? Exploring Political Attitudes of Losers in Taiwanese Presidential Elections
摘要
在現有研究民主政治的廣泛文獻中，輸家同意理論認為，相對於其他選民，選舉輸家普遍會對選舉公平性有所質疑，同時也不可避免地會對選後由敵對政黨所主導的政局，持續抱持負面的態度。論者也因而指出，輸家在選後至下次大選舉行前的不服輸、不滿，甚至行為的不服從，將會對一國民主的穩定有關鍵性的影響。本文聚焦於選舉輸家的政治態度，嘗試以台灣為案例，以驗證上述理論。具體研究問題有二：第一、無論敗選的政黨為何，輸家對選舉公平性的質疑，是否已是台灣政治的普遍現象？第二、選舉輸家對於民主政治的態度（包括民主支持、民主滿意）會呈現何種趨勢？藉由這些態度的長期走向，如何進一步解讀我國民主政治的發展？有別於以往文獻的研究方法，本文採用跨年的長期性縱斷面資料，以2000-2012年經歷過兩次政黨輪替的總統選舉為研究素材。此外，除了選舉輸家與贏家，同時又納入未投票者為分析對象。研究結果顯示，以往認為選民一旦成為選舉輸家之後，必然會「換了位置就換了腦袋」的論點，並未完全符合我國案例的研究發現。首先，在選舉公平性評價方面，確實如理論所預期，無論敗選的政黨為何，輸家皆會認為選舉過程不公；相對地，贏家則會傾向認可選舉的公平性。其次，有別於過去文獻，輸家／贏家的分野並未被證實是左右台灣民眾支持民主與否的顯著因素。本文的跨年研究指出，政黨支持才是解釋民主支持的一個有效變項；無論選舉輸贏，歷次總統選舉的選後調查都顯示，泛綠支持者皆傾向支持民主政治。綜合過去研究台灣民主化的相關文獻與本研究的發現，本文認為，上述結果可能與戒嚴時期以來的政治傳統有關。最後，選舉輸家必然會對民主不滿的論點，也未在本研究得到證實。不過，本文發現，選舉贏家會對民主政治較為滿意的傾向，在多數年度的模型皆達到統計上的顯著水準。
並列摘要
Among large literature of democratic theories, theorists of loser's consent argue that election losers tend to evaluate the election as an unfair game and hold negative attitudes toward future politics. Therefore, political attitudes and actions of losers would be key factors deciding stability of democracy. Focusing on the case of Taiwan, this study attempts to explore two questions: (1) whether losers treat the election as a unfair game is the common case for either KMT or DPP supporters? (2) what are losers' attitudes toward democracy? Different from the previous literature, this study examines several surveys which collected in 2000-2012 presidential elections. In addition to losers and winners, absent voters are included in the analysis.Findings of this work indicate that ”different position, different mindset” thesis could not be completely applied to the case of Taiwan. First, as the literature expect, losers always view the election as a unfair game. On the contrary, in eyes of winners, election is fair. Second, loser/winner distinction does not show significant effect on support for democracy. Instead, party support is proved to be an influential factor. The DPP supporters are inclined to support democracy in each survey. The author asserts that the above result might be owing to Taiwan's political tradition. Third, losers do not exert effect on satisfaction with democracy. However, winner factor is statistically significant in most surveys.