「兩岸關係因素」真的影響了2012年的台灣總統大選嗎？

Did the Cross-Strait Relations Really Affect the 2012 Presidential Election in Taiwan?

湯晏甄(Yen-Chen Tang)

《臺灣民主季刊》 10卷3期 (2013/09) Pp. 91-130

摘要

「兩岸關係因素」真的影響了2012年的台灣總統大選嗎？這是本文的問題意識。以往學術研究對於「兩岸關係因素」大都著重在民眾預期兩岸經貿開放所帶來的經濟效應，本文嘗試釐清「兩岸關係因素」的概念意涵並賦予新的定義，同時檢視兩岸實施ECFA後，民眾確實感受到的整體與個體之經濟利弊。本文使用「2012年台灣選舉與民主化調查研究」的資料，以「勝算對數模型」（logit model）進行檢證。實證結果顯示，「兩岸關係因素」對此次台灣總統大選確實有影響。支持「九二共識」的選民，比較不會投給民進黨候選人；愈肯定ECFA經濟效應的選民，愈不會投給民進黨候選人。本文進一步發現，「兩岸關係因素」中的經濟因素，對於中立選民的影響最大，弱民進黨支持者次之。但是，「台灣認同」在這次總統大選並沒有發揮作用，此結果與過去研究發現截然不同。

關鍵字

兩岸關係 ； 理性選擇理論 ； 符號政治理論

並列摘要

Did the cross-Strait relations really affect the 2012 presidential election in Taiwan? This article deals with this problem. Previous research regarding cross-Strait relations mostly focused on the expectations of the public for the economic effects brought about by the launch of the cross-Strait economic and trade policies. This article clarifies its implications and redefines it. In the same time, this article also examines the advantages and disadvantages felt by the general public after the implementations of the ECFA. This study uses the data of the national survey of ”Taiwan Election and Democratization Study” and tries to take advantage of it by adopting the logit model to examine. The empirical results support the hypothesis that cross-Strait relations affecting the 2012 presidential election in Taiwan. Voters who supported the ”1992 Consensus” are less likely to vote for DPP candidates. The higher the degree of advantages voters felt regarding ECFA, the less likely they are to vote for DPP candidates. Furthermore, we also find that economic factors in the cross-Strait relationship have the largest influence on independent voters, followed by weak DPP supporters. However, the empirical results indicate ”Taiwan Identity” did not have impacts on this year's presidential election which was quite different from those findings of the previous studies.

並列關鍵字

cross-Strait relations ； rational choice approach ； symbolic political theory

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