俄羅斯與中亞五國能源合作及挑戰之探究

The Research of Energy Cooperation and Challenge among Russia and Central Asia Fives

羅勝雄(Shing-Shung Lo)

《國防雜誌》 26卷3期 (2011/06) Pp. 3-15

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.2011.26(3).1

摘要

後冷戰時期俄羅斯受到北約和歐盟雙東擴的影響，美國推行“大中亞計畫”，在中亞建立軍事基地，策動“顏色革命”，企圖扭轉俄羅斯的傳統勢力範圍。此外，烏克蘭及喬治亞兩國欲加入北約的趨勢，以及受到全球金融危機的影響，俄羅斯正面臨地緣政治空間壓縮和國內經濟疲軟的雙重壓力。俄羅斯當前的戰略目標是恢復大國地位，而恢復大國地位的前提，必須以“強大的軍隊”做後盾。根據此一戰略目標，俄羅斯將穩定的外部環境和有效運用能源資源作為發展經濟戰略，從而得以建設一支強大的國家軍事力量，做為新世紀的國家利益及支撐國家崛起的兩大戰略支柱。在此背景下，俄羅斯正通過各種手段加強與中亞國家的雙邊或多邊能源合作，力圖重新恢復在中亞能源地緣政治格局中的主導地位。面對世界大國對中亞能源的爭奪和中亞國家能源多元化的政策，俄羅斯受到油氣管線輸出走向、資金、技術等制約因素，正面臨多元化的戰略挑戰。

關鍵字

大中亞計畫 ； 地緣政治 ； 經濟戰略 ； 能源多元化

並列摘要

In post-Cold War era, Russia's strategic territory is increasingly coming under threat. Firstly, there is the eastward expansion of EU and NATO. Secondly, US also attempts to influence Russia's range of traditional power through the ”Greater Central Asia program” , which aims to strengthen US military presence, as well as to promote the so called ”color revolution” in central Georgia, the Ukraine, and the various Transcaucasia countries by exploiting their willingness to join NATO. In addition, the impact of the recent global financial crisis also plays a role. As a result, Russia is facing the dual geopolitical and economic pressure. Therefore, Russia is eager to revive its status as a great power, and hopes to achieve this through the creation of a ”strong military”. In accordance with this strategic goal, the development of which will invariably depend on factors that ranges from a stable external environment, and the effective utilization of the rich energy resources as a basis for strong economic growth. A significantly strong military force forms the premise for the twin pillars of safeguarding Russia's national interests and ensuring Russia's rise in prominence. In such context, Russia is aggressively strengthening bilateral or multilateral co-operation in the energy sector. In return, she hopes to regain dominance in Central Asia's energy services. In the face of increasing world demand for Central Asia's energy resources, and the regions diversifying policy, Russia comes increasingly under pressure. The construction of gas pipelines, financial and technical constrains presents only some of the challenges faced by Russia.

並列關鍵字

Greater Central Asia program ； Geopolitics ； Economic strategy ； Energy diversification