- 期刊
兩岸賽局回顧與展望－兼論後ECFA時代新情勢
The Review and Perspective of Games in Both Taiwan and Mainland China and Concurrently Discuss post-ECFA Time New Circumstance
摘要
兩岸自1949年分治以來，時而對抗時而合作的過程，頗為適合運用賽局理論加以剖析，1950－1978年，兩岸互相對峙，幾無合作的可能，形成了「僵持賽局」。1979－1986年，中共提出一國兩制，試圖尋求臺灣的認同與合作，這段時期臺灣仍堅守三不政策，臺灣仍維持「僵持賽局」，中共則逐漸進入「囚犯困境」賽局。直到1987－1992年，臺灣開放民眾赴大陸探親，開啟合作的態度，這時雙方同時進入了「囚犯困境」賽局中。1993－1994年辜汪會談開啟了兩岸合作的大門，原本可以突破「囚犯困境」的局面，但是又因前總統李登輝訪美，使得兩岸關係惡化，再度形成屬於這個階段的「囚犯困境」賽局；更危險的是1995－2007年間，兩岸嘗試操作「邊緣政策」，形成了危機逐步升高的「膽小賽局」。2008年馬總統上任後，積極改善兩岸關係，對立氣氛逐漸緩和，當2010年完成ECFA簽署後，被認為是60年來兩岸關係最美好的時刻，自此兩岸進入了一場合作系統較為穩定的「圍捕公鹿」賽局。合作已經開始，合作的深化仍需謹慎，深化的程度必需檢視大陸內部諸多現象及對我方態度作為調整步幅的參考，包括：一、大陸內部政治改革程度；二、尊重臺灣參與國際組織；三、對臺武力部署程度；四、對於中華民國主權的承認。而臺灣適時的運用「放緩交流」甚至「裹步不前」可以成為有效的對抗策略。現階段兩岸並無進行政治談判的條件，我國政府的大陸政策只有貼近民意，步步為營、行穩致遠，方能在安全的基礎上創造和平繁榮的未來。
並列摘要
Taiwan and Mainland China have partitioned since 1949, the process of confront or cooperation from time to time is suitable to be applied the game theory analyzes. 1950-1978, Taiwan and Mainland China confronted each other, almost no possibility of cooperation have resulted in ”deadlock game”. 1979-1986, the Mainland China proposed ”one country, two systems”, attempting to seek for Taiwan's approval and cooperation. However, Taiwan insisted the ”three no's” policies. As a result, Taiwan remains ”deadlock game”, on the other hand, Mainland China gradually enters ”prisoner's dilemma”. Until 1987-1992, Taiwan's resident were able to visit relatives in Mainland China created the new manner of cooperation, Taiwan and Mainland China simultaneously entered ”prisoner's dilemma”. 1993-1994 ”Koo-Wang Talks” has opened Taiwan and Mainland China cooperation front door, might break through ”prisoner's dilemma” originally, but because former president Lee Teng-hui visited US, it caused the cross-Strait relations getting worse and it formed once again to the stage of ”prisoner's dilemma”. The relation became even worse was during 1995-2007, Taiwan and Mainland China attempt to manipulate the ”brinkmanship” which formed the gradually increase of crisis, is called ”chicken of games”.In 2008, the President Ma Ying-jeou improves the cross-Strait relations positively, the confrontation atmosphere ease gradually, when after ECFA signed completely in 2010, it was considered the best moment for the cross-Strait relations in 60 years, from now on Taiwan and Mainland China will move on a stable cooperation system and form the games of ”Stag hunt”. The cooperation already started, but the depth of cooperation must be discreet. The degree of depth must evaluate and inspect Mainland China's domestic phenomena and attitude toward Taiwan so that Taiwan can adjust the pace of progress. They are included: first, the degree of internal political reform in Mainland China, second, respect for Taiwan's participation in international organizations, third, the degree of force deploy the mainland China to Taiwan and fourth, the recognition of sovereignty of the Republic of China. Taiwan use ”postpones to exchange” or even ”binds step” timely may become the effective counter-strategies. At present, there is no condition for cross-strait political negotiations. Our government's policy toward Mainland China is only to close the public, at every step, steady progress in order to create security on the basis of future peace and prosperity.