中美貨幣戰爭之研究

A Study of China-U.S. Currency War

韓慧林(Hui-Lin Hai) ； 王貴民(Kuei-Min Wang)

《國防雜誌》 32卷3期 (2017/09) Pp. 1-20

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.2017.32(3).1

摘要

中國大陸之綜合國力成長被稱之為「中國崛起」，而且經濟實力促使軍事之快速成長，提升其國家地位與國際話語權。而美國正面臨對其國家安全的嚴重威脅，從中國主導的「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行(AIIB)」成立、「一帶一路：絲綢之路經濟帶、21世紀海上絲綢之路」經濟戰略，以及運用主權基金秘購黃金，然最大威脅是美元本身崩潰的危險。本研究發現任何國家都無法置身於貨幣戰爭之外，若國家經濟無法確保持續成長，大量投資軍事或武器系統之作為，對經濟將有不利之發展。未來國防預算是否能相對地增加？若排擠社會福利，人民士氣將受影響，綜合國力則被削弱；這些貨幣戰爭之結果於戰略規劃之際，亦應該納入考量因素。

關鍵字

中國崛起 ； 貨幣戰爭 ； 一帶一路

並列摘要

The comprehensive national strength growth of Mainland China, which is also known as ＂China's Rising＂ from the economic reform. The economic strength has also potentially improved her military power in an stunning speed, which also benefits her national power and the international discourse right. A tremendous threat to the national security of the United States includes the following international events launched by China: the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), One Belt and One Road Initiative, and the clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. The bingist threat is the potential collapse of the US dollar value. This study finds that no country can stard out of the currency war if there is any. Hence, if a country cannot ensure her economic growth, then any military investment would undermine the country's economic development. No matter what changes the future national defense budget, if a social welfare is excluded, the people's morale will also be certainly affected, and the national comprehensive national strength will be deeply weakened. This is the reason why the consequences of international currency wars should be one of the important decision making factors in strategic planning.

並列關鍵字

China's Rising ； Currency War ； One Belt and One Road