北約與「修昔底德的陷阱」：美、中大國競逐下的大西洋聯盟戰略

NATO and Thucydides' Trap: The Atlantic Alliance in the age of US-China great power competition

布魯克．A．史密斯─溫莎(Brooke A. Smith-Windsor)

《國防雜誌》 33卷3期 (2018/09) Pp. 1-29

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.201809_33(3).0001

摘要

本研究以北約三個核心任務為情境，探討政治、法律、軍事制約因素對北約危機因應之影響，並主張價值在不干擾利益時，會越來越成為北約處理中共議題時的重要決定因素。另外，有關「北約的行動能力和意願」等質疑也納入研究，本文從美、中與區域盟邦衝突所引起的一系列危機應變，得出了一個合理卻又肯定的推論，這正是本文作者的企圖。上述肯定的推論，迄今仍屬合理發生的範圍內─具體而言，我們仍期待當艾里森所描述的其他四個案例出現時，美、中強權競爭能夠和平解決，一個維持現狀的強權和一個崛起的強權能夠避開戰禍。然而，修昔底德本人提醒了我們：「希望總是一筆具昂貴風險的買賣，備戰才是正途！」

關鍵字

北約 ； 美中衝突 ； 合作安全 ； 地緣戰略

並列摘要

Political, legal and military factors bearing on NATO's potential response to this evolving environment have been explored in the context of its three core tasks. Why values, alongside interests, will be important determinants of NATO actions vis-à-vis the PRC has come to light. A plausible affirmative reply to the inquiry ＂could and would NATO act?＂ in a variety of contingencies involving conflict between China and the US and its allies also has emerged. It is this author's aspiration that the reply remains in the realm of the plausible-in other words, a hope that US-China great power competition is peacefully managed to join the ranks of the other four cases described by Allison when war was avoided between the status quo great power and the rising one. But, as Thucydides himself said, ＂Hope is an expensive commodity. It makes better sense to be prepared.＂

並列關鍵字

NATO ； US-Sino conflict ； cooperative security ； geostrategic