後全球金融危機中國大陸房市是否有泡沫化危機？

The Bubble of Crisis in Housing Market in Mainland China after the Global Financial Crisis?

趙永祥(Yuang-Shiang Chao) ； 吳依正(E-Jeng Wu)

《華人經濟研究》 12卷1期 (2014/03) Pp. 169-187

摘要

大陸房價高漲之背景主要來自大陸都市化發展迅速、經濟高度成長，民眾購買力提升，對房地產需求快速擴張，以致自2007年初起，房價漲幅擴大。尤其2009年大陸為因應全球金融危機衝擊，推出大規模經濟振興方案及持續性寬鬆貨幣政策，加上投機炒作，更加速房價的上漲。後金融危機大陸房價是否有泡沫化危機？全球金融危機之後，中國大陸房市泡沫化現象益趨明顯；在大陸當局採取冷卻房市措施後，房價已大幅回跌。惟亦導致房地產投資大幅下滑，金融體系信用風險上升以及資金緊俏等不利影響。茲依據國際間普遍使用之房價所得比、房價租金比及空屋率等三項指標研判，大陸房價確有泡沫形成疑慮，本文得出以下幾項重要發現：一、房價所得比偏高：北京、上海等主要城市2010年房價所得比多逾10倍，遠高於開發中國家之2.5至6倍之間。二、房價租金比明顯下降：2009年，北京、深圳、上海等大城市的租金房價比普遍降至4%以下（低於大陸國土資源部認定之門檻值4.5%）。三、空屋率過高：2011年3月大陸7省過去5年內完工住宅的平均空屋率達20%，豪宅及郊區別墅的空屋率則高達60%至90%。儘管大陸房價存在泡沫疑慮，惟仍侷限於一些主要的一線城市，以及福州、寧波等部分二線城市。大陸國務院自2010年3月起，針對房市過熱現象陸續推出一系列抑制房價高漲之嚴厲措施成效顯著，70大城市平均房價年增率已自2010年4月12.8%之高點，下滑至2012年5月之-1.5%。由於大陸自2011年以來經濟明顯降溫，加上房地產投資占其GDP比重高達10%以上。若房市持續低迷恐嚴重衝擊其經濟成長，尤其地方政府與中小企業因積極涉入房地產投資，導致借款金額快速攀升，更加重金融體系風險並危及社會安定，因此大陸官方自2011年以來陸續採行四大重要措施包括：1.寬鬆貨幣政策；2.允許地方政府 發債；3.支援小型企業之金融財稅措施；4.擴大保障性住房政策等四項主要因應措施以支撐景氣，並舒緩房市降溫對各經濟層面帶來之負面影響。

關鍵字

全球金融危機 ； 泡沫化 ； 信用風險

並列摘要

The rising price mainly resulted from Mainland China Urban Development rapid economic growth, enhancing the purchasing power of the people and the rapid expansion of demand for real estate since the beginning of 2007. Prices rose expand. In particular, in response to the global financial Mainland crises, launched massive economic stimulus package and continuing accommodative monetary policy in 2009, coupled with speculation, more accelerated rises in real estate prices. After the financial crisis, whether there is a bubble in mainland prices crisis? After the global financial crisis, the China housing market bubble phenomenon increasingly obvious benefits; After taking measures to cool the housing market in the Mainland authorities, prices fell back significantly. Though resulted in substantial declines in real estate investment, the financial system and the capital increase in the credit risk and other adverse effects of tight. Hereby based on international prices resulting widespread use of the ratio of house prices and rental vacancy rates than the three indicators , such as judgments, Mainland bubble formation rates do have doubts, we provide the following several key findings:First, the high prices resulting ratio: major cities Beijing, Shanghai and other proceeds prices than in 2010 and more than 10 times higher than between 2.5 to 6 times the developing countries.Secondly, the ratio decreased rental rates: 2009, Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other big cities than in the general rental rates dropped to below 4% (below the threshold identified Mainland MLR4.5%).Thirdly, the vacancy rate is too high: There're seven provinces in mainland completed within the last five years the average vacancy rate of 20% for residential, luxury residential villas and suburban vacancy rate is as high as 60-90% in March, 2011. China government provides the four policies to solve the problems. 1. loose-monetary policy; 2. to allow local governments to issue bonds; 3. supporting fund for small businesses in the financial and taxation measures; 4. to expand affordable housing policies in response to four key measures to support the declining economy.

並列關鍵字

Global Financial Crisis ； Housing Market Bubbling ； Credit Risk