從「一帶一路」與「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」分析中國經濟版圖擴張之挑戰與效益

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and One Belt One Road Strategy to Investigate China Overseas Expansion and the Impact on Taiwan's Economic Development

邱素津(Shu-Jin Chiou) ； 趙永祥(Yuang-Shiang Chao)

《華人經濟研究》 14卷1期 (2016/03) Pp. 81-102

摘要

「一帶一路」不是一個實體和機制，而是合作發展的理念和倡議，是依靠中國與有關國家和地區既有的雙多邊機制，藉助既有的、行之有效的區域合作平台，「一帶一路」橫跨亞歐非，沿線涉及64個國家、44億人口，基礎建設規模相當可觀，每年約需投入1兆美元，加上沿線貿易總額至少1-2億美元，已成為各國虎視眈眈的投資標的，也是為何「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」(以下簡稱亞投行)能吸引50多個國家搶先參與的誘因。「亞投行」和「一帶一路」在推動基礎建設過程所引生出來的商機十分可觀，台灣擁有產業技術實力的企業，即可藉由加入亞投行參與「一帶一路」建設，筆者認為，這也是台灣經濟要「翻轉」的大好機會。「一帶一路」的構想及其規劃，由於政策自提出至今不過短短一年多，總體戰略構想在十三五計畫之中是一項重要的戰略，一帶一路可謂中國帶來宏觀的效益，主要有因應中國大陸新一輪改革開放及平衡區域發展、「一帶一路」戰略可成為擴大中西部開放、打造中西部經濟升級版的重要引擎與消化過剩產能同時促進中國大陸產業升級轉型。尤其「一帶一路」在「亞投行」龐大金融支撐下，將進一步推進亞歐區域聯結，必然牽動現有兩岸經貿投資關係，也將衝擊台灣企業的對外發展。隨著「一帶一路」戰略揭開序幕，中國大陸資本向外輸出的全球化戰略也隨之啟動。其中亞投行、絲路基金等正是中國大陸向全亞洲進行資本輸出的戰略性平台，但投資標的主要鎖定那些市場機制尚未充分建立、國內政治制度尚不穩定的新興市場國家，投資風險原本尌已偏高。本研究將深度剖析台灣參加「亞投行」之好處與對台灣未來經濟發展之可能影響，與「一帶一路」對台灣經濟發展的商機和挑戰與對國內產業界可能帶來的影響進行分析。

關鍵字

亞投行 ； 一帶一路 ； 中國 ； 投資風險 ； 台灣經濟發展

並列摘要

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a proposed international financial institution which is focused on supporting infrastructure construction in the Asia-Pacific region. The bank was proposed as an initiative by the government of China and supported by 37 regional and 20 non-regional members Prospective Founding Members, 53 of which have signed the Articles of Agreement that form the legal basis for the proposed bank. With massive $4 trillion currency reserves, China wants to not only purchase the good will of its many neighbors by lavishing multi-billion infrastructure projects, but it also wants to find more sustainable and tangible opportunities to invest its huge foreign exchange cache. China has stepped closer to claiming full-fledged economic leadership in Asia by officially launching the AIIB, which has been the centerpiece of the Xi administration's efforts to enhance Beijing's influence. The AIIB is part of Xi's ＂Peripheral Diplomacy＂, which it announced in October 2013 in an effort to win the favor of neighboring countries estranged by China's territorial expansionism. AIIB and One Belt One Road (OBOR) are the two engines in promoting the process of infrastructure which are embedded good opportunities to expand China overseas expansion very progressively. This research discusses about the background of ＂One Road, One Belt＂ and AIIB and analyzes deeply its strategic purpose, further the attitudes toward AIIB and ＂One Road, One Belt＂ of each country and the importance and influences of these two strategies. For the past few years, Taiwan has the technical strength, and can be enhanced her power to enter into wider Asian market via AIIB and OBOR. It's a good opportunity to ＂flip＂ Asian market form Taiwan's future economic development.

並列關鍵字

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) ； One Belt One Road (OBOR) ； Investment Risk ； Taiwan Economic Development