少子化和高齡化對家庭消費及其組成的影響

The Impacts of the Demographic Structure on Household Consumption in Taiwan

范芝萍(Chih-Ping Fan)

《明新學報》 35卷2期 (2009/08) Pp. 131-153

https://doi.org/10.29688/MHJ.200908.0012

摘要

本文運用台灣地區1976至2006年家庭收支調查資料所整理之出生年群資料(cohort data)，分析台灣人口結構變化的兩個主要特色－「少子化」與「高齡化」對台灣家庭消費及其組成的影響。近似無關之迴歸(seemingly unrelated regression, SURE)聯立估計結果顯示，家庭消費組成中，除飲料與房租及水費支出外，戶內14歲以下幼年人口或65歲以上老年人口對其餘類別消費組成均具有顯著的影響，其效果與方向則依各支出類別而異。整體而言，依賴人口的確可作為影響家庭消費組成決策的重要因素之一。然而戶內依賴人口對家庭總消費的影響則不具統計上的顯著性，可能肇因於依賴人口對各類消費組成或正或負的影響相互抵消所致，亦或許是其他自變數對總消費的影響相對重要，導致依賴人口變數對總消費的影響效果無法凸顯。

關鍵字

人口結構 ； 家庭消費 ； 出生年群資料 ； 近似無關之迴歸

並列摘要

The evolving population structure of Taiwan is well known in its characteristic features: the number of children decline and the rise of population aging. This paper examines the effects of demographic changes on household consumption using cohort data from Taiwan's 1976-2006 Survey of Family Income and Expenditure. The SURE estimation show that the twelve components of household consumption except beverages and rent and water charges, others are all influenced significantly by the number of children or elderly in the household. However, these two demographic variables do not have significant impact on overall household expenditures, it may stem from the offset between the positive and negative effects on the household expenditure components.

並列關鍵字

demographic structure ； household consumption ； cohort data ； SURE

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