台灣地區人口結構變遷對土地使用需求之影響初探

由於人口結構變遷一直是土地使用相關研究之重要議題，台灣地區隨著人口結構的快速變遷，已產生人口高齡化及少子化的社會現象，相關研究針對人口結構變遷與土地使用間之互動關係，特別是對學校及醫療安養機構與住宅用地需求之研究則甚為少見，以致於無法立即反應實際土地及住宅使用者之需求，此為本研究所欲探討之主要動機。本研究之主要目的為針對學校及醫療安養機構與住宅用地之需求，試圖藉由歷年台灣人口結構變遷趨勢，利用複相關分析萃取影響學校及醫療用地與住宅需求的重要變數，再利用多元迴歸統計方法分析台灣地區在人口結構變遷下，對學校及醫療用地與住宅用地需求之影響程度。實證分析結果發現對學校用地面積具顯著影響之變數為有偶率，學校用地面積與有偶率呈正向變動關係。對醫療用地具顯著影響之變數主要為老年人口比例、有偶率、總生育率、未婚率、國小學生數，醫療用地與老年人口比例、有偶率呈正向變動關係。在住宅需求方面，與住宅自有率具顯著影響之變數包括有偶率、老年人口比例，住宅自有率與有偶率及老年人口比例呈正向變動關係。與平均每戶居住面積具顯著影響之變數包括有偶率、老年人口比例、總生育率，平均每戶居住面積與有偶率、老年人口比例呈正向變動關係。本研究結果除期望提供政府相關單位未來擬定土地使用及住宅相關政策與法今，以及台灣房地產業界未來研擬房地產供給及行銷策略規劃之參考。

關鍵字

人口結構變遷；高齡化；少子化；土地使用

並列摘要

The population structure transition is always an important issue in the related researches for land use. With the rapid population change, the related studies for the relationship between population transition and land use were few, especially in the demand of schools, medical sites and residential land use. Hence, the major purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of population structure transition to land use demands which include schools, medical sites, and residential land by means of the tendency of population transition in Taiwan. The empirical analysis results show that the significant impact variable in school land area includes married rate. The school land area and the married rate had a positive relationship. The significant impact variables in medical sites include the proportion of the elderly population, married rate, total fertility rate, unmarried rate and the number of primary school students. The medical sites and married rate, and the proportion of the elderly population had a positive relationship respectively. In housing demand, the significant impact variables in home ownership rate include the proportion of the elderly population and married rate. The home ownership rate and the proportion of elderly population, and married rate had a positive relationship respectively. The significant impact variables in the average living space per household include married rate, the proportion of the elderly population and total fertility rate. The average living space per household and married rate as well as the proportion of elderly population had a positive relationship respectively. The results of this study expected to provide references to the government in order to develop the related land use and housing policies and provide the useful information to the real estate industries in Taiwan in order to develop the housing provision and planning of marketing strategy in the future.