社會福利支出、國民年金與跨世代財政負擔

Social Welfare Expenditure, National Pension System, and Intergenerational Fiscal Burden

劉宗欣(Steven Zong-Shin Liu) ； 林恭正(Kung-Cheng Lin)

《臺灣經濟預測與政策》 33卷2期 (2003/10) Pp. 61-95

https://doi.org/10.29629/TEFP.200310.0003

摘要

台灣持續擴張的社會福利支出，以及即將實施的國民年金制度，是否會增加未來子孫的財政負擔？此問題業已引起民眾高度的關心，惟至今尚未見有較為明確的評估。利用世代會計法，本文嘗試評估台灣現行的社會福利支出及未來的國民年金制度對跨世代財政負擔的影響。結果顯示，台灣目前的財政政策確實會造成跨世代財政負擔不平衡。政策模擬分析顯示，現行的社會福利政策是造成跨世代財政負擔不平衡的原因之一。未來若實施國民年金制度，應可改善跨世代財政負擔不平衡程度，又以平衡跨世代財政負擔觀點，目前研議中的國民年金儲蓄保險案（甲案）應是最佳的選擇。

關鍵字

跨世代財政負擔 ； 淨稅負 ； 社會福利支出 ； 國民年金

並列摘要

The persistent expansion of social welfare expenditures and the forthcoming national pension system in Taiwan have sparked public concerns and heated discussions as to whether both will result in heavier fiscal burden on future generations? However, specific and clear assessments are still lack so far. By employing the Generational Accounting approach, this paper attempts to assess the effects of both the current social welfare expenditures and the future national pension system on the intergenerational fiscal burden. The results reveal that current government fiscal policies in Taiwan definitely will result in intergenerational fiscal burden imbalance. Policy simulations indicate that current social welfare policies are surely one of sources that result in the intergenerational fiscal burden imbalance. The implementation of national pension system could improve the degree of intergenerational fiscal burden imbalance. Furthermore, based on the viewpoint of balancing intergenerational fiscal burden, the proposed national-pension-saving- insurance alternative, among others, seems to be the best choice for the future national pension system.

並列關鍵字

intergenerational fiscal burden ； net tax payments ； social welfare expenditure ； national pension system

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