政府擴大公共建設投資支出對我國總體經濟、財政及所得分配影響之動態一般均衡分析

AN ECONOMY-WIDE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF INCREASING GOVERNMENT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT ON MACRO-ECONOMY, FISCAL BALANCE AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION: A DYNAMIC COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH

劉瑞文(Ruey-Wan Liou) ； 許聖民(Sheng Ming Hsu) ； 林幸君(Hsing-Chun Lin) ； 謝德衍(Te-Yen Hsieh) ； 張靜貞(Ching-Cheng Chang) ； 徐世勳(Shih-Hsun Hsu)

《臺灣經濟預測與政策》 48卷2期 (2018/03) Pp. 41-77

摘要

我國政府投資占國內生產毛額比率由2005年的4.12%降至2015年的2.60%，而政府投資逐年下滑造成基礎建設無法支撐產業升級需要，使得經濟成長力道趨緩。本文針對政府擴大公共建設投資支出，分別輔以增加所得稅或提升間接稅作為政府投資財源，分析對國內經濟與產業影響。模擬結果顯示，若擴大政府投資，國內的非貿易競爭型產業將透過實質匯率下降之影響，以及民間投資與內需市場之帶動下而擴大產出，有利經濟成長與產業發展。若採用所得稅融通，能使國內所得分配不均改善；若採間接稅支付政府消費，則對財政餘絀能有正面效果。

關鍵字

公共投資 ； 所得分配 ； 動態可計算一般均衡模型

並列摘要

The ratio of the Taiwanese government's investment to GDP dropped from 4.12% in 2005 to 2.60% in 2015, and continued to fall afterwards. The diminishing investment in infrastructure was insufficient to support industrial needs and slowed economic growth. This paper examines the effects of an expansion in public construction investment expenditure. We assume two alternatives for financing such expenditures. The first is an increase in income tax, and the second is an increase in indirect taxes as the source for government investment. Simulation results show that increased government investment will have a more positive effect on GDP than increased government consumption. Additionally, government investment induces further private investment. Using income taxes to finance investment can reduce domestic income inequality. Indirect taxation, on the other hand, can have a positive effect on financial debt if used for government consumption. Due to domestic currency appreciation as well as investment-driven effects, domestic non-trade-based industries can experience improved industrial output, favorable economic growth, and industrial development.

並列關鍵字

Public investment ； Income distribution ； Dynamic computable general equilibrium model

參考文獻

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行政院主計總處 (2014b), 《國民所得統計年報》, 臺北: 行政院主計總處。 (DGBAS (2014b), National Accounts Yearbook, Taipei: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan.)