川普主政下的東北亞新局勢

2017年，東北亞的北韓不斷核爆、試射導彈；川普對北韓的軍事挑釁，直接要求中國承擔更多區域大國的責任，勸阻金正恩發展核武。若北京不配合，華府不排除自己動手。美國使用的手段包括有效嚇阻、聯合制裁、外交談判等三類，萬不得已，最下策才是單獨由美國動武解決北韓。除非能一次徹底摧毀北韓，美軍不會貿然發動攻擊或斬首金正恩；倘若北韓反擊，南韓首爾必一片焦土；其結果，死傷可能十分慘烈。中共不贊成制裁或懲罰北韓，以免激怒北韓惡化局勢；若北韓崩潰，中國將很難處理湧入的難民。俄羅斯亞太政策在發展經濟，因此，東北亞安全同樣涉及俄羅斯的國家利益。若中國在東北部署導彈回應南韓部署薩德，俄羅斯同樣也可能部署導彈來回應薩德；中俄就此議題互相取得共識，東北亞還是中俄聯合抗美的格局。南韓文在寅就任總統後，接連與川普、習近平、安倍及普丁對話，試圖找回外交的自主權。文在寅表示北韓停止核試及導彈挑釁，南韓才有可能停止部署薩德。美國國務卿提勒森（Rex Tillerson）訪日時重申，美日同盟是亞太安全的基石；對日而言，朝鮮半島戰略優先性僅次於日本國土。未來日本回應北韓挑釁將有五大整備：建立自主反制的能力、境外攔截與迎擊、強化衛星情報系統、美日軍事一體化以及2019年防衛計畫大綱。金正恩想透過導彈，拉抬自已與中、美直接談判。川普希望與中國共同控管北韓，一方面也與北韓建立所謂的第二軌；北韓與美談判的目標是希望成為合法的擁核國家，但阻止北韓核武打擊美國本土卻是川普的底線；雙方訴求顯然有結構性的矛盾，美朝第二軌談判恐怕將困難重重。

關鍵字

川普；東北亞；北韓

並列摘要

In 2017, North Korea continued nuclear explosion, test missiles North Korea's military challenge, Trump directly asked China to assume more responsibility for regional powers, to discourage Kim Jong-un development of nuclear weapons. If Beijing does not match, Washington does not rule out its own hands The means used by the United States include three categories effective deterrence, joint sanctions, and diplomatic negotiations. Last resort is to solve North Korea alone by the United States. Unless a complete destruction of North Korea, the US military will not rush to attack or beheaded Kim Jong-un. If North Korea counterattack, Seoul will first scorched; the result, casualties may be very tragic. The CCP is not in favor of sanctions or punishments to avoid deliberately provoking North Korea; if North Korea collapses, the influx of refugees into China will be difficult to deal with Russia's Asia-Pacific policy in the development of the economy, therefore, Northeast Asia security also involves the Russian national interests. If China deployed a missile in the northeast to respond to South Korea's deployment of Sade, Russia could also deploy missiles to respond to Sade: China and Russia have reached a consensus on this issue, and China -Russia joint anti-American pattern. After serving as President of the People's Republic of Korea. he continued to speak with Trump. Xi Jinping, Abe and Putin, To get back to the dominance of diplomacy right. Wen said that North Korea stopped nuclear weapons, missile provocation, South Korea is likely to stop the deployment of Sade US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reiterated that the US-Japan alliance was the cornerstone of Asia-Pacific security. For Japan, the strategic priority of the Korean Peninsula was second only to Japanese territory. The future of Japan to respond to North Korea has five ways: is the ability to establish independent counter-foreign interception and attack, strengthen the satellite intelligence system the US-Japan military integration, and the 2019 defense program outline.