經理人盈餘預測與盈餘管理之關聯性研究～以台灣上市電子公司為例

The Relationship between Managers' Earnings Forecast and Earnings Management

徐清俊(Ching-Jun Hsu) ； 陳宜鋒(Yi-Feng Chen)

《宜蘭大學學報》 2期 (2004/03) Pp. 127-138

https://doi.org/10.6178/niu.2004.02.22

摘要

本研究以管理當局及分析師年度最後一次預測值來探討管理當局及分析師盈餘預測品質之差異，以及盈餘預測之發佈是否成為經理人員操縱盈餘的誘因之一。故全文分為兩大研究主題：（1）在台灣獨特的盈餘預測機制下，內外部盈餘預測資訊品質的差異（2）公司管理當局預估當期盈餘可能低於預測盈餘時，經理人員為避免股價下跌及遭不滿的投資人控訴，是否可能採用各種盈餘管理的方法向上操縱盈餘，以達到預測目標值。除此之外，我國上市電子公司研究發展支出比重較高，管理當局是否會利用研發支出來進行盈餘管理，亦為本研究探討重點之一。本研究以民國88年至90年有發佈盈餘預測之上市電子公司為樣本，將樣本分為「對照組」與「操縱組」，並使用迴歸模式、簡單平均模式及隨機漫步模式來探討操縱組之公司相對於對照組公司而言，在裁決性應計項目、處分資產損益、處分投資損益、營業外損益以及研發費用等各種可能的操縱工具上，是否有顯著的不同。本研究實證結果顯示：（1）外界分析師與管理當局盈餘預測資訊的資訊品質，並無顯著之差異。（2）公司經理人員較會利用裁決性應計項目、營業外損益及處分資產來操縱盈餘使盈餘增加，以達到預測值。

關鍵字

盈餘管理 ； 應計項目 ； 經理人員盈餘預測

並列摘要

The purpose of this research is to investigate the difference between outer analysts earnings forecasts and inner management earnings forecasts; furthermore, to analyze whether announcing management earnings forecasts would be one of the motivations to earnings manipulation. The whole research had been separated into two main subjects: First, the information quality variance between inner and outer earnings forecasts under the unique earnings forecasts system in Taiwan's capital market. Second, when management earnings forecasts are more likely to be lower than the actual earnings, to avoid stock price collapse and stockholders' accuses, we investigate whether it is possible that the management authorities may by any means up manipulate earnings to accomplish their prior earnings forecasts. The results of our analysis conclude that: First, there's no significant difference between inner management earnings forecasts and outer analysts earnings forecasts. Second, the management authorities may up manipulate discretional accrual accounts in order to accomplish their prior earnings forecasts; The results of this study failed to reject the hypothesis that management authorities may possibly up manipulate earnings to accomplish their prior earnings forecasts.

並列關鍵字

Earnings management ； Accrual items ； Management earnings forecasts