氣候變遷情境下臺灣外來入侵植物之時空動態與潛在風險評估

Accessing the Spatial-temporal Dynamic and Geographic Invasion Risk of Alien Invasive Plant under Climate Change in Taiwan

黃靜宜(Jing-Yi Huang) ； 呂明倫(Ming-Lun Lu)

《作物、環境與生物資訊》 15卷1期 (2018/03) Pp. 34-46

https://doi.org/10.30061/CEB.201803_15(1).0003

摘要

生物入侵是導致生物多樣性喪失的主要原因，瞭解入侵物種的空間分布及風險區位，將有助於入侵問題的預防與管理。本研究挑選43種外來入侵植物作為目標種，運用物種調查資料及最大熵模式(MaxEnt)模擬各物種現生及未來氣候變遷情境下之空間分布機率，並透過物種豐富度的增減率，評估保護區系統的潛在入侵風險。研究結果顯示，在氣候變遷的影響下，外來入侵植物有朝向高緯度及高海拔方向推移的趨勢，尤以海拔600-800 m的淺山地帶與24.5°N的緯度帶，可能遭受最大衝擊；在58個保護區的入侵風險評估上，有70%的保護區恐因氣候變遷影響，提升其入侵風險，另有14%保護區的入侵風險可望減緩，可為入侵防治與生態復育提供良好契機。在整體研究架構上，可透過本研究找出易受氣候變遷影響的高風險區位，提供未來入侵防治策略或風險管理上的參考。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 物種分布模式 ； 物種豐富度 ； 保護區 ； 保育

並列摘要

Understanding spatial-temporal pattern and risk location that support multiple invasive plant species is critical for prevention and management. We assembled a comprehensive occurrence database for 43 terrestrial invasive plant species from collections of field data and projected species ranges using MaxEnt species distribution models based on current and future climate. We analyzed shifts in species richness across latitudinal and elevational gradient and quantified increment rates as geographic invasion risk for protected areas under the climate change scenarios. Our results show that the most invasive plant hotspots may tend to increase towards higher latitudes and altitudes, particularly between 600 and 800 m asl and 24.5°N where are specifically high threats. About 70% of 58 protected areas with increased risk under future climate conditions, and the remaining 14% with reduced risk where no longer suitable for invasive plants can be restored and conserved. Our procedure can identify areas of high risk by invasive plant species. It will help manager in prioritizing their measures to protect native biodiversity from the negative impact.

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； Species distribution model ； Species richness ； Protected areas ； Conservation