排球舉球員不同舉球動作之預測分析

目的：瞭解不同舉球動作間、碰球時間點間與年齡間在預測勝算上之差異情形。方法：以某國立大學運動績優生、排球初級學生及某私立大學運動績優生共137名為參與者，依其對2000年奧運男子排球冠亞軍比賽中舉球動作之判斷，來測試其視覺偵察能力，資料以廣義線性混合效應模型來分析。結果：一、在碰球前與中時，其在不同位置舉球動作之預測勝算由高而低為『3號位→4號位→2號位』，但18-19歲的運動績優生為『4號位→3號位→2號位』。在碰球後時，則為『3號位→2號位→號位』。二、一般生與運動績優生在2號位舉球動作上，其在不同碰球時間點預測勝算由高而低為『後→前→中』，在3號位舉球動作上則為『後→中→前』。一般生在4號位舉球動作上，為『前→中→後』，但運動績優生則為『前→後→中』。三、運動績優生在3號位舉球動作上，其在不同年齡預測勝算由高而低為『20歲以上→18-19歲』。結論：一、在碰球前與中時，是最佳隱藏動作意圖的時機，加上快攻攻擊具掩護及誘導的效果，促使2、4號位舉球動作較難預測，3號位舉球動作較易預測。其中2號位舉球動作因具快攻掩護及背向舉球員之假動作效果，使其在碰球前與中時最難預測。二、在4號位舉球動作上，熟練者在碰球後時較能判斷舉球員動作意圖，初學者則尚受快攻影響。三、熟練者在較易預測之3號位舉球動作上，因年齡增加而較能利用前線索來增加預測能力。

關鍵字

動作視覺；前線索；廣義線性混合效應模式

並列摘要

Purpose: To understand difference of prediction odds between setting up movements, between time points of touching ball and between ages. Method: The study was designed to test visual detection competence of total 137 students with high athletic performance, students with basic skills from a national university, and students with high athletic performance from a private university based on their judgment of setting up movements from film of male volleyball championship of 2000 Olympic Games. The data gained was statistically analyzed in Generalized Linear Mixed Effects Model. Results: A. Before and while touching the ball, prediction odds in different positions of setting up movement reduced from 3 to 4 to 2 in turn. For students with high athletic performance aged 18-19, prediction odds reduced from 4 to 3 to 2 in turn. After touching the ball, prediction odds reduced from 3 to 2 to 4 in turn. B. For students with average and high athletic performance in position number 2 setting up movement, prediction odds in different time points of touching the ball reduced from back to front to middle in turn and in position number 3, back to middle to front. For average students in position number 4, the prediction odds reduced from front to middle to back in turn, however, for students with high athletic performance, front to back to middle. C. For students with high athletic performance in position number 3 setting up movement, prediction odds in different ages reduced from above 20 to 18-19 years old. Conclusions: A. Timing of hiding movement intentions, which happened best before and while touching the ball, and quick attack, which had the effect of covering and inducing, made setting up movement in position numbers 2 and 4 harder to predict, and in number 3 easier to predict. Number 2 position was hardest to predict since it had the false-movement effect of quick attack to cover and different directions of ball path from setters. B. In position number 4 setting up movement, masters could more easily judge setters' intention of movement after touching the ball but novices were affected by quick attack. C. In more predictable position number 3 setting up movement, masters could increase their predictive ability by using precue more easily due to older ages.