應用灰關聯分析於台灣地區國際商港海事事故天然致因之研究

Applying Grey Relational Analysis to the Study of Natural Causes of Marine Incident in the International Harbors in Taiwan

劉中平(Chung-Ping Liu) ； 梁金樹(Gin-Shuh Liang) ； 朱經武(Ching-Wu Chu)

《航運季刊》 13卷3期 (2004/09) Pp. 95-114

摘要

探討海事事故天然致因將有助於降低各港因天然因素引發之海事事故的肇事率。因天然致因無法被人類全然窺知，因而具有灰色特性，故本文運用灰色系統理論中的灰色關聯分析方法，建立了港口水域船舶事故主要天然致因的關聯分析模型。該模型既可為我國水上安全宏觀管理提供依據，也可為特定港口的安全管理提供依據。本文之研究結果，對於避免和減少港口事故的巨大經濟損失具有一定的意義與貢獻。

關鍵字

海事事故 ； 事故致因 ； 灰色關聯分析

並列摘要

That explore the natural causes of marine accident is helpful in reducing the possibility of marine accident in each harbor. The natural causes cannot be entirely known by humans, so they fit in with the grey characteristics. Based on Grey System Theory, this paper establishes an analysis model of the accident's natural causes on port vessels accidence. According to the analysis using the model, this paper finds out the natural causes of the port vessels accidence and the scientific basis of administration. The results of our research can significantly avoid and reduce the heavy loss of the port vessels accidence.

並列關鍵字

Marine Accident ； Accident's causes ； Grey Relational Analysis