貨櫃船新船造價影響變數與預測模式之研究－整合時間序列分析與灰色理論

Influential Factors and Forecasting Model of New-building Containership Prices by Integrating Time Series Analysis with Grey Theory

丁士展(Shih-Chan Ting) ； 李泓逸(Hing-Yi Lee) ； 呂亦宸(Yi-Chen Lu)

《航運季刊》 24卷2期 (2015/06) Pp. 65-85

摘要

近年來由於定期航運產業受到船舶大型化之影響，航商在主要航線投入大型貨櫃船營運以降低貨櫃運送之單位固定成本，然而船舶造價影響固定成本中之折舊成本，因此航商在進行船舶投資決策時必須更加謹慎小心。海運市場受到全球經濟景氣及各國間貿易量的影響，導致運價與新船造價波動，故建構貨櫃船新船造價預測模式，以找出影響貨櫃船造價波動的因素非常重要。本研究蒐集相關影響變數資料，將變數經過時間序列分析，並且優先投入灰關聯度高且含有落後期數項之變數，建構灰色GM（1, N）預測模式。研究結果發現投入六變數：（1）新船價格（前一季）、（2）新船價格（前兩季）、（3）新船價格（前三季）、（4）貨櫃船租賃價格（前一季）、（5）貨櫃船租賃價格（當季）、（6）CRU全球鋼鐵價格指數（前一季），即可建構貨櫃船新船造價預測模式，可達到99.5%的精準度。

關鍵字

時間序列分析 ； 灰色理論 ； 灰關聯度 ； 貨櫃船新船造價

並列摘要

Increasing average size of new containership deliveries and vessel deployment brings fierce market competition in the liner industry. Most of large liner companies ordered extra-large size containerships to reduce their operating unit costs and achieve economies of scale. But overcapacity leads to low freight rates and low returns, and thus, carriers have to struggle throughout these years. Hence, carriers have to consider their large containership deployment strategy with much more carefulness, especially in placing new-building orders. In dynamic new-building ship market, prices are influenced by various factors. It is important for carriers to figure out these critical influential factors and to derive forecasting models for predicting the trend of new-building prices. In this paper, time series analysis and grey theory are applied, by collecting related data, to explore key factors influencing new-building ship prices and to derive a price forecasting model. The results show that new-building ship prices are affected by (1) new-building price last quarter, (2) new-building price last two quarter, (3) new-building price last three quarter, (4) containership charter hire last quarter, (5) containership charter hire on the spot, and (6) CRU world steel price index last quarter. The forecasting model of these six factors can achieve 99.5% determination ratio.

並列關鍵字

Time series analysis ； Grey theory ； Grey relational grade ； New-building containership price