美國職業籃球2005-2006季後賽教練暫停時機選擇與效果分析

本研究主要目的在探討美國職業籃球(National Basketball Association, NBA)教練暫停決策時機、效果與訊息處理模式。研究對象爲2005-2006NBA季後賽16隊教練，資料來源爲NBA網站上在賽後針對每一場比賽的大會比賽完整記錄(play-to-play)，並以描述統計、動力系統及單因子變異數分析進行資料處理。結果發現在運用暫停比分差距分析，教練主要以一球（±3分）能改變勝負的比分差距爲主要考量；落後的球隊暫停次數較多(71:29)的發現應證教練認爲在落後時，請求暫停是一種反敗爲勝的方式。在時機上，第二節與第四節教練使用暫停較爲頻繁，顯示每階段愈到後面愈爲關鍵。另外在暫停效果方面，從暫停後2分鐘比分狀態的改變來看，比賽時間還多過2分鐘時，教練在勝負8分間，仍可利用暫停扭轉比賽情勢；就本研究來看在16支球隊中，騎士隊請求暫停效果最佳，而灰熊隊較差。最後在教練請求至暫停訊息分析上顯示，教練在領先或落後時有一致請求暫停的斜率關係，也就是球隊在領先或落後的期間，所有教練在一定的分距及時間的改變下會請求暫停，也使生態系統理論中，有機體是對環境中的有效事件訊息來直接知覺到物體的特性得到印証。

關鍵字

短暫停；暫停斜率；暫停效果；光流理論

並列摘要

This study examined National Basketball Association coaches' time-out decision-making at the time, the effect and information processing. The research object is 16 coaches in 2005-2006 NBA play-offs. Data were collected from NBA official website in terms of play-to-play. Describe statistics; dynamical systems and ANOVA were used to analyze the time-out requested. We found that NBA coaches was with one shot (± 3) can change the win and defeat in order to consider mainly; The lagging team time-out more number of times (71:29) show it is the way in which a complete turnabout to ask time-out. On the opportunity, section two and four are comparatively frequent to use time-out with the coach, show it is the key that every stage heals behind. Moreover, while the remaining time was longer than 2 minutes, NBA coaches could use time-out to win a game if his team was trailed less than 8points. So far as this research in 16 teams, it is the best that Cavaliers asks to time-out the effect, and Grizzlies is relatively bad. Finally, in the coaches' time-out information analysis, the coach asks the time-out slope relation unanimously while leading or lagging behind, and all coaches will be asked to time-out under of score and change of time. Make ecosystem among the theory, organism whether effective incident information in environment come direct consciousness characteristic to reach object confirm.