本研究目的在瞭解影響莊智淵成績表現的主要攻防技術,以及探討對其成績表現具有促進與阻礙作用的攻防技術,並預測其下一階段訓練目標之量化值。本研究以桌球比賽攻防技術歸類表格為研究工具,觀察記錄莊智淵參加國際賽事表現。所得資料以灰色關聯分析方法、系統預測方法與數列預測方法進行統計分析。經統計分析和探討獲得結論如下:一、影響莊智淵成績表現最重要的攻防技術是正手側連續球攻擊,而在遭遇到不同對手時其主要攻防技術亦有所不同。二、現階段對莊智淵成績表現具有促進作用的攻防技術有反手側連續球攻擊、反手側接發球搶攻、正手側發球防守、正手側連續球防守與正手側接發球搶攻,而產生阻礙作用的攻防技術有反手側發球搶攻、反手側連續球防守、正手側連續球攻擊、正手側接發球防守、反手側發球防守、反手側接發球防守與正手側發球搶攻。三、對莊智淵下一階段訓練目標值的預測結果,正手側發球搶攻為71.43%,反手側發球搶攻為48.60%,正手側發球防守為80.94%,反手側發球防守為66.67%,正手側接發球搶攻為64.94%,反手側接發球搶攻為60.98%,正手側接發球防守為73.08%,反手側接發球防守為61.57%,正手側連續球攻擊為69.47%,反手側連續球攻擊為56.75%,正手側連續球防守為43.16%,反手側連續球防守為42.57%。
The purpose of this study was to understand what effect performances of Chuan Chih-Yuan in attack-defend skill and whether they had difference or not when he competed with different person. As well as probe into performances of Chuan Chih-Yuan in attack-defend skill of promoted and hinder function. Besides, forecast next training goal's quantity. The study observed and recorded the performance in many international competitions from Chuan Chih-Yuan who used the statistical table of attack-defend skill. At the same time, we also used the Gray System Theory of Gray Relational Analysis, the way of systematic gray prediction and sequence gray prediction to analyzed the outcome. The results of this research were as followings: 1.That effect performances of Chuan Chih-Yuan in main attack-defend skill was the rally-attack by forehand side, and when he met different opponent had different attack-defend skill. 2. Now, performances of Chuan Chih-Yuan had improve function was rally-attack by backhand side, receive-attack by backhand side, service-defend by forehand side, rally- defend by forehand side, receive-attack by forehand side. And hinder function was service-attack by backhand side, rally- defend by backhand side, rally-attack by forehand side, receive- defend by forehand side, service-defend by backhand side, service-defend by backhand side, service-attack by forehand side. 3.Chuan Chih-Yuan had twelve attack-defend skill's scoring rate have the forecast result of training goal at next stage: service-attack by forehand side was 71.43%, service-attack by backhand side was 48.60%, service-defend by forehand side was 80.94%, service-defend by backhand side was 66.67%, service-attack by forehand side was 64.96%, service-attack by backhand side was 60.98%, receive-attack by forehand side was 73.08%, receive-attack by backhand side was 61.57%, rally-attack by forehand side was 69.47%, rally-attack by backhand side was 56.75%, rally-defend by forehand side was 43.16%, rally- defend by backhand side was 42.57%.