國內上市櫃公司資本投資行為之研究－採展望理論之觀點

The Study of Taiwan Listed Company Behavior on Capital Investment: A Prospect Theory Perspective

曾綺貞(Chi-Chen Tseng) ； 溫育芳(Yue-Fang Wen)

《創新與管理》 6卷2期 (2009/05) Pp. 39-68

https://doi.org/10.30118/JIM.200905.0003

摘要

過去展望理論相關之研究著重於投資的處分效果，並以個人的角度去探討其不理性的投資行為。而本研究認為企業亦由個人所組成，公司在資本投資決策上是否亦會出現類似個人投資的不理性行為，故本研究的重點在於驗證展望理論的確定效果及反射效果，是否也存在於公司的資本投資行為當中，以作為股市投資人之參考。本研究的研究對象為國內的上市櫃公司，研究期間為2001至2006年，經以資本投資比率為應變數、前期經營績效為自變數的複迴歸分析結果發現，在前期經營績效較好的樣本組中，公司當期的投資支出會趨於保守，其資本投資比率與前期經營績效呈反向的關係，即存在展望理論所述之確定效果，其為一種不理性的行為；反之，在前期經營績效較差的樣本組中，公司當期的資本投資比率與前期經營績效為正向的關係，即並不存在展望理論所謂的反射效果，顯示並未像股市投資者般有放手一搏的不理性行為出現。

關鍵字

展望理論 ； 資本投資 ； 確定效果 ； 反射效果

並列摘要

Based on individual irrational behavior of inmvesment, the foucus of previos research is on the disposition effect of investment. This paper argues that firms are combinations of individuals, and whether the irrational behavior exists in the capital investment decisions of firms. This paper emphasizes on the verification whether certain effect and reflection effect of prospect theory exist in the investing behaviors of companies. By using regression models with data from Taiwanese listed companies between 2001 and 2006, the dependent variable is the ratio of capital investment and the independent variable is the previous operating performance. The evidences show that the certain effect exists in the subsample of better previous operating performance, i.e., the ratio of capital investment is negatively associated with previous operating performance. On the other hand, the existence of reflection effect is not supported in the subsample of worse previous operating performance, i.e., the ratio of capital investment is positively associated with previous operating performance. The irrationally risk-seeking behavior of stock market investors when facing loss is not observed in the capital investment decisions.

並列關鍵字

Prospect Theory ； Certainty Effect、Reflection Effect