中國汽車產業景氣指數的開發與應用研究

隨著我國工業化和現代化步伐的加快，汽車製造業逐步成為支撐經濟高速增長的“支柱產業”，其發展態勢將直接影響國民經濟的運行，因此對汽車工業的監測預測具有十分重要的現實意義。本文通過多方面收集與汽車工業有關的月度經濟指標，利用時差相關分析等方法從中篩選出汽車工業的先行、一致和滯後景氣指標，並利用國際上先進的合成指數(Composite Index, CI)方法構建了我國汽車工業的景氣指數，為政府、汽車製造業企業及相關部門準確判斷汽車工業發展形勢，有效預測汽車工業的未來發展動向，正確制定相關的宏觀經濟調控方向、力度及經營方針提供科學的依據。

關鍵字

汽車產業；景氣指標；合成指數CI ；汽車產業景氣指數

並列摘要

The developing state of automobile industry, which is the major sustaining industry, influences the operation of national economy directly. Therefore, the monitoring on automobile industry has very important realistic meanings. In this case, we collect the monthly economic indicators related to automobile industry, from which we screen the leading, coincident, lagging indicators of automobile industry by the method of cross correlation, and compute composite index (CI) of automobile industry of China. We expect our work could help government, automobile enterprise and relevant departments judge the situation of automobile industry accurately, predict future development tendency of automobile industry effectively, constitute relevant macroeconomic regulation and control direction, dynamics and operation policy accurately.